Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise throughout the day as new snow and strong winds form sensitive slabs at the upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow will become likely by the afternoon above 9,000’. New snow is also stressing weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack. Avalanches involving weak snow near the ground will be large enough to bury a person. Avoid being on, or under, steep wind loaded slopes today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Snow has just started to fall as of 5am. 6-10 inches of dense new snow is expected in the upper elevations by evening. Winds are increasing out of the southwest/west and will be blowing in the 30s-40s mph by mid day. Fresh wind slabs up to 18 inches in depth will be easy to trigger in steep, upper elevation terrain by the afternoon. Slabs are forming on top of a variety of surfaces including dry, faceted snow and slick crusts. Wind loaded slopes will be most dangerous, yet avalanche activity will also be possible in steep terrain that is sheltered from the wind given the rapid loading rates.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Weak layers of snow that formed in November are buried 2-3 feet deep beneath hard slabs. The likelihood of triggering one of these slabs has been decreasing in recent days as the layers in snowpack adjust to one another. However, poor structure is present across the Togwotee zone and observers noted collapses in the snowpack only 3 days ago.

    Loading from today’s snowfall and strong wind will stress the November weak layers more than they have been in about a week. While triggering is still on the low end of the likelihood scale, it is worth noting the increased stress, especially with more snow on the way. Very steep, rocky, and wind affected slopes in the upper elevations are most suspect. Keep in mind that a surface avalanche involving new snow is the best way to trigger deeper weak layers.

    (12/10/2025)

    A persistent slab avalanche on Barber's Point. This avalanche failed on weak snow formed in November. This terrain is wind loaded and very steep. A good slope to avoid today.

    Photo: Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Today’s snow is coming in heavy and fast with strong winds. Up to a foot of new snow containing close to an inch of water (SWE) is expected in a 12 hour period today. The combination of rapid loading on a variety of weak surfaces is a good recipe for sensitive avalanche conditions. This rapid load will also stress weak layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack and increase the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche when compared to recent days. Evaluate new snowfall amounts carefully and avoid very steep, wind loaded slopes in the upper elevations today. The new snow problem and persistent slab problem will overlap in these areas and will be where avalanche danger is highest.

If you get out riding today, please consider submitting an observation here. A simple picture or snow depth can make a big difference. Thank you!

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