Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

By choosing slopes with a uniform snowpack deeper than about 5 feet (150cm), it is appropriate to step out into more aggressive terrain choices right now.   On shallower slopes, it is possible to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche that breaks on weak layers near the ground.  Be cautious in snow-deprived areas where slabs are only a few feet thick or in wind-affected terrain where slopes with a thin and variable snowpack are more common.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    In the Southeast Mountains, faceted weak layers are buried 2 to 6 feet deep and are becoming more difficult to trigger as layers adjust to the recent loading.  Slabs are most easily triggered where they are thinner, which is most common in shallow areas near Crested Butte and CB South, or in wind-affected terrain.   Be cautious of windward terrain features with variable depths, rock bands, and slopes where slabs are only a few feet thick.   The safest riding is where the snowpack is uniform and consistently deeper than about 5 feet (150 cm).  

     

    This large persistent avalanche was explosively triggered on Mt. Crested Butte on 1/17.  It exemplifies the destructive size, and one example of the type of terrain that is troublesome.

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack is finally catching a reprieve from the almost constant loading since mid-December.  With each passing day of dry weather, weak layers under distress further adjust and the threat of triggering a dangerous avalanche gradually declines.  With Colorado's persistent weak layers in mid-winter, I look for more than a week without loading before I start to gain trust in the more suspect slopes.  We'll see the danger continue to decrease over the next few days of generally quiet weather now that we are nearing a week since the last significant snowfall and a few days since the last major wind-loading event.  

In the Northwest Mountains, there are fewer suspect slopes because the snowpack is so deep that weak layers are generally out of range for human triggers.  Although the likelihood is quite low, the potential size remains very consequential.  Most features of concern exist near and above treeline, especially on windward terrain features or on slopes where winds tend to carve out variable snow depths across a slope.  There are a lot of big lines and steep terrain that don't fit this description, and that is the type of terrain to step out into first this week.   The distribution of troublesome slopes is more common in the shallower parts of the Southeast Mountains, such as lower Cement and Brush Creek, or again, in wind-affected alpine terrain where slab depths are more variable.  Thus, in the Southeast Mountains, we are showing a higher likelihood and broader distribution that spans all elevations. Wherever your travels take you, choose routes that minimize exposure to shallow and rocky areas, and instead, target objectives with a deep and uniform snowpack.  

 

Regions covered