Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A winter storm will bring new snow and strong winds to the Olympics through Saturday morning.  Avoid steep wind-loaded slopes directly below ridgelines, this is where you will likely trigger a wind slab avalanche. Wind slab avalanches could be large and consequential.  In less wind affected terrain,  you may trigger a small storm slab avalanche or see wet loose avalanches as temperatures rise and if the sun comes out.  Winter has arrived and it's time to think about traveling safely in the backcountry.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds started blowing low density snow around Friday and the trend will continue Friday night.  It's likely you'll find wind-stiffened snow as you climb into more open slopes and especially near ridgelines.  Avoid lee open slopes steeper than 35 degrees where you might trigger a wind slab. With southerly winds forecast, lee NW through NE aspects will be the most suspect but use visual clues like blowing snow, fresh cornices, and wind-stiffened snow surfaces to identify which slopes to avoid.

    There's a great picture in the photo reel, showing a snow stripped ridge down to dirt on one side, while the other side is wind loaded and a prime candidate for a wind slab avalanche.  Make sure to give freshly formed cornices a wide berth, they can break back further than you expect. 

    There's some uncertainty with the snowfall forecast and there may be enough new snow for a storm slab problem to develop.  In less wind-affected snow, see how the new snow is bonding with quick snowpack tests like handpits or skintrack tests.  Do you see signs of natural avalanche activity or observe shooting cracks in lower angled terrain?  If so, avoid rollovers and unsupported slopes steeper than 40 degrees. 

    Finally, a warming trend on Saturday along with the possibility of sunshine may lead to wet loose avalanches specific to very steep sunny slopes.  These avalanches would likely be small and most problematic near terrain traps.  If you see natural release or pinwheels, shift aspects or move to lower angle terrain. 

Avalanche Discussion

Winter arrived in a big way this week, transforming the landscape with several feet of new snow and cold temperatures.  Observers at Hurricane Ridge found generally a right-side up snowpack in wind-sheltered areas with snow depths of 2.5-3'. In wind-loaded areas, snow depths may be twice as deep.  A few dry loose avalanches or sluffs were noted in very steep terrain.  One small slab avalanche was noted above a road cut but generally stable conditions were observed.  Near ridgelines, the wind the major factor, actively stripping some slopes and loading others. Shooting cracks were observed while traveling along ridgelines in the stiffer snow.  The 1.5-2' of storm snow received this week is well bonded to the underlying crust.  A layer of weak snow near the crust that formed last month was not reactive in snowpack tests.  

While lower elevations are in great shape for this early in the season, use extra care as you drop down lower and watch for shallowly buried rocks, stumps and open creeks. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

2022-2023 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December-early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings anytime when conditions warrant.  New for this season, we will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through late April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

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