Strong westerly winds have kept the avalanche danger at CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, dense slabs of wind drifted snow are overriding persistent weak layers of sugary, faceted snow, and human triggered avalanches are likely. A MODERATE danger exists near treeline and below on steep slopes facing W through N through E, and on upper elevation slopes facing W and SE. In these areas, human triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible.
It's still low tide out there, and the recent snow will just barely cover rocks, stumps, and logs beneath the surface.
Strong westerly winds continue to build unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on slopes facing NW-N-SE. Wind slabs are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instabilty. The biggest conern however, is the added stress these slabs are applying to buried persistent weak layers. For this reason alone, these areas should be avoided.
Generally speaking, our entire snowpack on slopes facing W-N-E has faceted through to the ground and we've begun to incrementally load this poor snowpack structure. The weakest snow exists in the top several inches nearest the old snow surface, and this is where avalanches are most likely to fail first. The mid-pack, although also faceted, retains some strength in many areas, while the base of the snowpack is completely rotten.
The recent load has not been enough to trigger a major avalanche cycle, or even to create widespread instability, but it is the beginning of a precarious and unpredictable situation. One thing is for certain, the danger increases with elevation, particularly on northerly aspects, where wind drifting has added more stress to this fragile structure. In these areas, human triggered avalanches have the potential to step down causing deeper, and more dangerous avalanches. This type of terrain will need to be avoided for the foreseeable future. Near treeline and below, the outcome is less certain, but I've already adjusted my mindset to dealing with a persistent weak layer problem, and I'll be avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees on all aspects where it exists.,
Geyser Pass Road: Expect slick conditions on a hard, snowpacked and icy surface. AWD with good tires required.
Grooming Conditions: Trails were roughly groomed over the weekend. Expect grooming to begin in earnest by next weekend.
Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Head into Moab Gear Trader to get yours!
Jake Etter reported this recent avalanche on the NE Face of Tukno. It likely started as a small wind slab realease that entrained loose snow before finally triggering a slab on a persistent weak layer at the steep, rocky choke.
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 52" Depth at Gold Basin: 28"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: WNW 15-20 G 30 Temp: 24° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 111%
Weather
Strong westerly winds, first from the south and then the north, have been hammering in the 20-30 mph range along ridge tops since around noon yesterday. Windy conditions are expected throughout the day. After the weekend heatwave, temps will actually drop a few degrees from the morning high of 24F today. The upcoming week will be dry and much cooler with daytime highs in the low to mid 20's, and overnight lows dropping into the single digits. Long range models don't look good I'm afraid as the dreaded La Nina jet stream continues to track north.
General Conditions
In spite of the thin conditions, the recent snow has brought people out of the woodwork and I received great observations yesterday from Reed Kennard, Jason Ramsdell, and Ryan Huels. All reported red flag signs of instability including wind loading, cracking, collapsing, and poor snowpack structure. They also reported good turning and riding on sheltered, northerly aspects. Near treeline and below, the recent storm snow has formed a cohesive soft slab over top of very weak, faceted surface snow. Above treeline, strong westerly winds have built thicker, denser slabs over this weak layer and the danger definitely increases with elevation. South facing terrain is very thin, both from the sun, and from being stripped by the winds.
Soft slab formation in the most recent storm snow.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
