Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Recent stormy weather, followed by warming and sun on Wednesday, will have loose avalanches at the front of the forecast.  While most avalanches involving new snow will be small, be aware of overhead hazards.  There's a chance for an isolated large cornice fall as the weather oscillates between warm and stormy. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Watch for loose avalanches as the day progresses. Sun and warming temperatures could initiate natural avalanches and prime steep, sun-exposed slopes for triggered slides. While we expect avalanches to be dry, they could also be moist. Monitor the surface snow and look for snow that slides easily on test slopes. Avalanches will generally be small, but they could be large at upper elevations.

    Recent snow and wind may have formed fresh wind slabs at upper elevations through Tuesday night.  Watch for stiffer snow surfaces, deeper drifts, and cracking in the new snow. There's a slight chance for larger and more dangerous cornices in steep, alpine features.

    Photo: Adam Butterfield

Avalanche Discussion

The Washington Pass area could pick up an additional 4" of snow by Wednesday. This could bring recent snow totals to 7 inches at 5,000ft and close to 1 foot at upper elevations.  Many ridgelines are thick with looming cornices that could fall with future warming temperatures and sun.  Give these behemoths space and minimize your exposure while traveling on slopes below corniced ridgelines. When traveling on ridges, stay far back from the edge and don't travel on overhung snow. 

WSDOT forecasters on Washington Pass reported numerous small wet loose avalanches that ran naturally and during control work on Monday, and a few natural loose dry avalanches on Tuesday. They reported rain at lower and middle elevations on Monday and 3-4" of new snow at 5,500ft on Tuesday.

If you’re in an area with less than 6 feet of snow on the ground or venturing into terrain east of Mazama, there is a chance for deeper avalanches on older weak layers. If you dig and find a layer of weak, sugary facets or weak moist snow in the middle of the snowpack, steer clear of steep, open slopes. Falling cornices could initiate much deeper, larger avalanches in these areas.

On April 2nd, an NWAC forecaster teamed up with WSDOT forecasters to check out the snowpack and recent avalanches near Washington Pass. They found that the upper 3 feet of the snowpack had transformed to melt forms, and the lower 1/2 to 2/3rds remained dry. They also cataloged a number of very large avalanches that ran during the late-March AR rain event. 

Confidence in the avalanche forecast is low, as observations have become scarce and infrequent. You can help contribute to the forecast by submitting an observation.

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