Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will start out MODERATE and rise to CONSIDERABLE by mid-day as a powerful storm system impacts the area bringing strong easterly winds and precipitation.  Fresh wind slabs will grow through they day and could be touchy for a person to trigger. A wind slab could trigger a larger avalanche on a deeper weak layer. Glide avalanches continue to release and run below treeline. The safest option on a storm day is to recreate on low angle slopes with nothing steeper above.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

End of Season Operations: Starting next week we will transition to our late season schedule. We will issue avalanche forecasts on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday for the second half of April. We will issue our final forecast of the season on Sunday, April 27.

If you have been traveling in avalanche terrain for at least one season and want to help avalanche researchers develop new tools to assist individuals with managing risk in avalanche terrain, check out this 1-2 minute survey. Participants will be entered to win prizes from Jones Snowboards, BCA, and more!

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The winds look like the biggest factor influencing the avalanche danger early in the day, but snow is forecast as the day progresses, which will increase the chances for large avalanches to occur naturally or be triggered by a person. There may be some anomalies today regarding wind slabs.  A wind slab could trigger a  larger storm or persistent slab avalanche breaking up to 2' deep. Wind slabs also may be found lower in elevation than they normally are due to the strength of the wind that is forecast.

    With strong winds forecast today it should be easy to see where the wind is blowing snow into fresh slabs. Small test slopes within the treeline elevation band would be good places to see how fresh wind slabs are reacting and shooting cracks mean the snowpack has energy and needs some time to adjust.

    Large and unusual avalanches have occurred in past years with a similar snowpack set up. There is a 1+ foot slab of new dry snow from the last week of storms sitting on weak grains that have been melting with warm spring temperatures. This is a precarious set up that brings a lot of uncertainty as to when it's breaking point will occur.

    Cornices have been reaching their breaking point and will continue to fail through this storm and beyond as they warm up. Finally, loose snow avalanches on steep slopes are on the list of hazards today with a lot of dry new snow in the upper elevations.

    (4/12/2025)

    Image from Windy showing the forecasted storm location on the left by 10pm tonight. Strong wind speeds are indicated by pink coloring and arrow shows wind direction from east to west. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    The surface hoar that got buried on Valentine's Day is now up to 2' deep in Summit Lake. We think it exists in specific places between 2,000' and 3,500' in wind sheltered areas. We haven't seen an avalanche on this layer since March 3rd, but it's behavior in Turnagain Pass makes us wary to trust it or even trust normal assessment tools like stability tests. This behavior includes letting multiple people and tracks on a slope before releasing and triggering an avalanche from the side or below. This can be completely avoided by sticking to lower angle slopes. If you are getting on steep slopes choose smaller features with no terrain traps below.

    (3/31/2025)

    Buried surface hoar found 1' below the surface above 2,000' on Tenderfoot 2 weeks ago.

    Photo: Mik Dalpes

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Glide avalanches continue to release across our forecast zones as the snowpack becomes weak as it melts. These avalanches are running into the treeline elevation band, so places that have been relatively safe this year may not be, as we go forward with the spring shed cycle. 

    Wet avalanches are less likely today with strong wind keeping surface conditions cool, but if the clouds come in later than expected watch for roller balls as the indicator the wet loose or wet slabs could be triggered naturally or by a person.

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