Avalanche forecast

Skyline

Utah Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The majority of the terrain on the Manti Skyline has a LOW to MODERATE danger rating but a CONSIDERABLE danger rating still exists in upper elevation northwest through east facing steep terrain.

Wind has been transporting lots of snow. Cornices have been breaking off. There was one snowmobile triggered slide in a fresh wind drift on Saturday. There was one deeper snowmobile triggered avalanche on Friday.

You'll want to avoid the big upper elevation slopes for now.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2

    I found lots of broken cornices on Sunday. This is a sure sign that the wind has been blowing and transporting snow. There's been lots of snow deposited on the more east facing terrain. This will be happening again today to a certain extent. If you're going to find an avalanche today, the most likely places are going to be on an upper elevation steep wind loaded slope that faces northeast through southeast.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Below is an excerpt from Sunday's forecast which describes where we are with the older buried faceted Persistent Weak Layers.

    OK, things are slowly changing with the old Persistent Weak Layers. I am finding that they are slowly gaining strength in many areas where the snowpack is becoming deeper. All these storms we've been having are helping to squash and force those old facets to bond and sinter forming stronger layers.

    Now, this is not the case in all areas. You will no doubt still find shallow spots where the snow is hollow, sugary and weak. If you trench your sled, you'll see what I mean. You'll find the sugar below.

    So, things are starting to turn the corner. (this should've happened back in January!!) However, there are still enough trouble spots out there to cause concern. Here are two examples:

    1. Areas with an overall shallow snowpack. Places where the snowpack is only in the 4 to 5 foot deep range have the weakest snow. This was demonstrated last week where a snowmobiler found a pocket in a shallow snowpack zone. DETAILS HERE
    2. Slopes that have previously avalanched earlier this season. Since they avalanched and took out snow from early on, they are shallower. Shallow areas = weak areas. I believe this was the case with a snowmobile triggered avalanche on Friday. DETAILS HERE Now here's a big problem. Unless you saw that a slope avalanched earlier this season, it's almost impossible to know for sure if it did or not by looking at it now. Slopes with a deeper snowpack are becoming more stable. Slopes that already avalanched are shallower and hold weaker snow. How can you tell them apart just from looking at them? There's no good way. I continue to hold my cards tight.

    ATTENTION EPHRAIM CANYON RIDERS: Take a look at this AVALANCHE REPORT HERE and read the additional comments. This slope just west of Scotty's worries me.

Additional Info

SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS

CAMERAS & WEATHER STATIONS

INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE

FACEBOOK: SKYLINE AVALANCHE

FORECAST EMAIL

PREVIOUS FORECASTS

Special Announcement

Our Spring Campaign is in full swing, and there are two great ways to support forecasting, awareness, and education across Utah: Donate to our Spring Campaign Bid on items in our Spring Auction Every dollar helps keep the backcountry community on top. Thank you for your support!

CLICK/TAP to Bid on items in our Spring Auction

CLICK/TAP to Donate to our Spring Campaign

Recent Activity

There was fairly widespread cornice fall activity on Sunday. You wouldn't want to be underneath these when they release. The good news is that the cornices didn't appear to be fracturing out deeper avalanches as they hit the slopes below. They were entraining some surface snow as they slid downhill but that's about it.

Snow and Weather

Current Conditions: Riding conditions were again very good on Sunday. Temperatures got into the mid 30s and definitely heated up a lot of snow. You'll find crusts in the low and mid elevations as well as sunny facing slopes. Upper elevation more northerly facing terrain holds excellent snow. The wind hasn't been crazy strong but steady enough along the upper ridges to drift quite a bit of snow.

Mountain Weather: It looks like we'll see clouds hanging for most of the day. Temperatures will again be into the mid 30s to around 40˚F. Southwest wind is going to continue to be breezy along the ridges but not so bad down in the canyons. It looks like it's going to crank up tonight as a storm moves in. A sharp cold front moves through overnight with perhaps the strongest wind we've seen this winter. It'll be from the northwest. We'll see snowfall overnight and through Tuesday eventually stacking up in the 6 to 8 inch range by Wednesday.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Regions covered