Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

It remains possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on steep terrain, where you find cohesive slabs on top of weak facets and depth hoar snow below. The most dangerous slopes will be found at upper elevations on northerly and east aspects, which will also be the most enticing to want to ski or ride, as other aspects have melted back to bare ground or have little snow on them. Take the time to dig a quick pit to assess if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists, or stick to slopes less than 35 degrees.    

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Weak facets and depth hoar that formed during the long dry period from November through January are capped beneath cohesive slabs that formed from the Valentine's Day storm. These widespread weak layers are 1 to 3 feet below the surface and remain easy to impact in travels. The most dangerous slopes face north and some east, mainly at upper elevations but also extend to below treeline in northerly terrain where storm snow has settled and stiffened into a cohesive slab. Expect that any slope that looks enticing enough to ride has this strong over weak snowpack structure. 

    Obvious signs of instability, like cracking and collapsing, may not be present and give you a false sense of security. It's still possible to trigger an avalanche remotely from the flats below or on an adjacent slope. Any avalanche triggered has the potential to take with it most of the season's snowpack and be large enough to injure or bury you.

    An intentionally triggered avalanche on an East aspect near treeline. This avalanche was triggered from the ridgeline and failed on depth hoar near the ground. It continues to remain possible to trigger avalanches like this one especially on northerly aspects at upper elevations.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison 2/19

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday felt downright hot, with light winds, sunny skies and temperatures hitting 52 F at 9300' and close to 40 F at 12,400'. The snowpack, especially at lower elevations, has taken a beating from the warm temperatures over the last week. Trailheads are mainly melted back to bare ground or ice, crusts have formed on all aspects but north and southerly aspects have mostly melted back to bare ground. Skiing and riding conditions are grim, and by the lack of tracks we've been seeing, I'm hoping most people were enjoying some other outdoor activities during the warm, pleasant weather.  A more active weather pattern is expected for us over the next week, but unfortunately, it looks to bring a lot of wind and not much snow, at least with the first two systems. Light snowfall (may see rain at lower elevations) is expected to start this morning into midday, bringing an inch or two of snow, with the bulk of the moisture staying to our east.

At 11,000'  and below, temperatures just barely dropped below freezing early this morning and after two days of warm weather, we may still have water percolating deeper down into the snowpack at these elevations. We removed wet slab from the problem list, as most snow at these elevations are found on northerly aspects and covered by the persistent slab problem, but water will not need to travel far to get into weak facet and depth hoar layers. Temperatures are expected to warm today into the 40s, and we may see a little bit of rain at these lower elevations.  

If you are getting out, even though it might've felt like spring, well-developed, widespread faceted crusts and depth hoar that formed from the long dry period that has been much of our winter hasn't gotten that message. These layers continue to remain cold, dry and still incredibly weak. The widespread cracking and collapsing we had for the week after the Valentines Day storm has diminished, but we were still getting isolated collapsing on northerly aspects over the last couple of days. Long column stability tests continue to fail and propagate with easy to moderate force 1 to 3 feet down on faceted crusts or depth hoar.  If you're heading out with the intention of making a decent turn, it's going to force you onto northerly aspects and make you deal with this persistent slab problem. Take the time to dig a pit to see if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists, and think about the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche. 

 Depth hoar and facets that formed during the long dry period from November throughJanuary( are still in mid winter form, and remain weak. Snow from the end of January and Valentine's Day storm rest on top of it. 2/28/2025) Photo: Andy Bond

 

Two big storms in October and early November have brought most of our moisture this season. This 2 to 3 feet of snow that remained on the ground mainly on north and east aspects has turned into very weak depth hoar and facets that are widespread. That last little uptick was the Valentine's Day storm which came in with 1.2 -1.4" of SWE and strong winds building cohesive slabs on top of these weak layers. (2/27/2025) Photo: Taos Avalanche Center 

Long range models are hinting at a more active weather pattern over the next couple of weeks, with a more promising looking storm heading our way Friday. It's still too far out to make any predictions but let's keep our fingers crossed that storms track our way in March bringing us some much-needed moisture for the overall health of our forests. 

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