Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A big change is coming, with warming temperatures and plenty of water over the next few days. By Sunday afternoon, wet avalanches will be likely all the way up to upper elevations, shifting higher over the course of the day. Avoid steep slopes where wet avalanches may run and where they stop. If you do reach upper elevations, stay off steep terrain unless the surface has been scoured back to a firm crust.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanches will happen in areas with previously light, dry snow. Expect initial peak activity Saturday night, but as temperatures creep higher on Sunday, avalanche activity will shift up the mountainside with the rising snowline. 

    Wet avalanches frequently occur naturally in the presence of rain. At least they tend to be predictable- there are usually several that happen in close proximity or similar timing. If you see one, expect similar avalanches to happen nearby. Avoid steep terrain, where you could initiate a slide in wet snow if you're sinking in more than a few inches. Also, steer around lower-angle areas beneath a steep slope, where these wet avalanches could run and stop. 

    These avalanches also frequently initiate in gullies, from tree bombs, or near rocks. They may fan out extensively from there. It's hard to tell, but this might be a day where you need to take wet avalanches more seriously than you might normally- sticking to more conservative terrain is a good plan for this wet, warm day. 

    Example photo: Large, wet avalanches like these are likely to happen on Sunday. Steer around steep spots and lower angle terrain beneath them where avalanches can run to. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Challenging weather will probably keep most people away from upper elevations. But if you make it up there, expect to find large, reactive slabs. Avalanches could be one foot to two or more in depth.

    Many upper elevation areas will likely be wind-affected. Expect larger and more reactive slabs in these areas. Even in sheltered areas, increasing temperatures will form "upside down" layers near the surface, so you could trigger an avalanche here, too. Danger and size will increase as the day progresses. 

    Avoid all steep slopes where either heavier wind-drifted snow or lighter, non wind-affected snow exists. If you must be out on steeps, wind-stripped areas where there is a harder crust are the place to be - but consider having crampons if you venture out there!

    Example photo: Expect to trigger large slab avalanches on steep slopes on Sunday. These could be larger and easier to trigger in wind-loaded terrain, but you could also trigger them in non wind-loaded terrain. Avoid steep slopes that aren't wind-stripped on Sunday. 

Avalanche Discussion

On Friday, January 9th, four backcountry skiers were caught and carried by a large avalanche while descending near Longs Pass in the Teanaway River drainage. The slide occurred on an S to SE facing slope at approximately 6200ft. One member of the party was not buried. Another teammate was partially buried but injured. The other two individuals were fully buried. During the initial rescue, the team located one of the buried victims, who did not survive. Despite the group's best efforts, they could not pinpoint the fourth member of their team. The party contacted 911 via a satellite device, and Kittitas County Search and Rescue responded to the area on Friday evening. Additional rescue efforts were postponed until daylight. Search and Rescue then returned to the site on Saturday and were joined by NWAC forecasters. The teams were able to locate the remaining victim. Unfortunately, neither of the fully buried skiers survived. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community of those involved in this avalanche accident. S-SE aspect, 6200ft, Avg Depth 2ft, HS-AS-R3-D2.5-O

Many backcountry users were out on Saturday, and the overall consensus was that it was windy. Active loading resulted in natural and human-triggered avalanches up to large, D2, in size. Expect an uptick and change in avalanche activity for Sunday, where wet avalanche activity will come into play.

Lower elevations had heavier snow. It's gotten moist in some areas, and there's been small amounts of rollerballing already. Given the lack of an abundance of light, dry snow, we expect a little less avalanche activity at that elevation. Snow near the top of the lower elevation band may behave more similarly to mid elevations. 

Forecasts are calling for just under an inch of water Saturday night, with snowlines at about 5000ft. We'll get similar amounts during the day on Sunday. Plus wind behaving similarly to what was seen on Saturday. There's even more water and higher snowlines in the forecast for Monday. 

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