Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger a large and destructive avalanche in east-facing terrain above 3000 ft. Warning signs will be limited, though hard slabs may sound hollow and drum-like underfoot. Look for pillowy smooth drifts on steep slopes to identify areas of potentially unstable snow and travel on textured snow surfaces to limit your exposure.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    What and where is it: Large wind slabs are becoming increasingly stubborn, but it remains possible to trigger them on steep east-facing terrain above 3,000 ft. Recent observations (OBS1, OBS2) show drifts several feet thick with a strong-over-weak structure. Blowing snow and poor visibility yesterday indicate continued snow transport, which may have added a little more thickness and size to these slabs.

    How can you recognize it: Use your eyes. Look for smooth, rounded, pillowy drifts and areas that feel hollow and stiff underfoot. Be extra cautious around convex rollovers and steep, unsupported slopes. Warning signs may be limited and hard slabs can feel solid until they fail.

     How can you manage it: If you are traveling on hollow, stiff snow, dig down to assess. Use a pole to probe for structure, and if you find strong-over-weak, consider using hand shears or column tests to assess sensitivity. Pay particular attention to areas protected by the wind, gullies, convex rollovers, and underneath cliffs. Limit your exposure to these areas. If you choose to cross them, take the time to assess the snow carefully.

Avalanche Discussion

The 18 inches of snow from January 25–26 was reworked by strong northwest winds on the 27th and 28th, building thick slabs on east-facing terrain. Late on the 27th into early on the 28th, large natural avalanches ran on east-facing, middle-elevation slopes in Center Headwall and Hillman’s Highway in Tuckerman Ravine, and on Mount Jefferson. Cold temperatures since then have slowed settlement and bonding, so while wind has scoured and stiffened some surfaces, it has not fixed the underlying structure.

A strong-over-weak structure still exists within these recent slabs, and observations show it can both collapse and propagate. We do not yet understand how widespread this structure is across the forecast area. It may be buried deep under thick, supportive slabs in some places and sit closer to the surface under thinner slabs in others. Treat this as an uncertain probability / high consequence problem and keep terrain choices conservative until you have gathered more detailed information.The Summer Lion Head Traverse continues to become a larger and more connected snow slope as seen from photos from both the road and trail. This terrain shelters snow and is a type of feature to be cautious of today. The consequence of triggering an avalanche here due to the terrain trap below could be devastating. The Winter Route is the recommended way to the Summit of Mount Washington from Pinkham Notch.OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts. 

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