Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You're most likely to trigger an avalanche where the wind has formed drifts or stiffened the new snow surface, especially in steep terrain above 3000 feet. You can reduce your risk by seeking old firm snow surfaces. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    What and where is it:  Watch for new wind slabs formed from the 5.5 inches of snow over the last 48 hours. Strong west winds have likely scoured exposed terrain and limited slab development at upper elevations. Below ridgelines, however, you may find larger, more cohesive slabs in wind-sheltered terrain, especially in gullies, below rollovers, and other lee features that concentrate drifting snow.

    How can you recognize it:  Active blowing snow and plumes at ridgelines are clear signs wind slabs are forming and may be most sensitive. Look for fresh, smooth, rounded drifts, and check how the new snow is bonding to the older, firm snow surface by digging down in a small test spot. Shooting cracks, a hollow or drum-like feel, and drifts deeper than your boot tops are strong clues you’re on a newly formed wind slab.

    How can you manage it: Visually assess slopes and start zones before you commit to them. Avoid terrain showing active loading or fresh, smooth, rounded drifts. Favor travel on wind-scoured, firm snow surfaces where slabs are less likely to form.

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche danger should remain relatively steady through Sunday with only small inputs of new snow. Strong winds will remain the primary driver of changing conditions, continuing to transport available snow and build wind slabs on lee terrain features. The next significant increase in avalanche danger is tied to a coastal storm arriving Sunday afternoon and continuing into Monday. Current model guidance supports a period of moderate to heavy snowfall Sunday night and the potential for 10 - 16 inches of accumulation, with totals dependent on the storm track. Persistent Slabs: On Monday, January 19th, we listed a Persistent Slab avalanche problem as a secondary concern to address stability issues associated with larger wind slabs formed several days prior. These slabs showed potential to remain reactive due to cold temperatures slowing settlement and the presence of a potential persistent weak layer just above the January 10 melt-freeze crust. Since then, a growing body of field observations have demonstrated a consistent, day-by-day decrease in the likelihood of triggering this deeper layer. In many areas, the overlying snowpack now appears sufficiently bridged and supportive, making it unlikely that a person, or even a smaller avalanche, could step down and initiate a deeper layer today. While this weak layer may still exist in isolated locations, the probability of triggering it has decreased enough that we are removing it as a listed avalanche problem. Looking ahead, keep this layer in mind: a large avalanche associated with the next storm cycle could still apply enough stress to reactivate it and result in a larger, more destructive slide.NWS has issued an extreme cold warning for the forecast area.  In this kind of cold and wind, our operating margins shrink fast. Small problems that would be manageable on a normal day can escalate quickly into a serious situation -something as simple as a binding issue, fogged goggles, a navigation error, or an unplanned stop can become hard to resolve when you are losing heat and dexterity. If you venture out this weekend, be disciplined about covering exposed skin, managing layers to regulate heat and moisture, and staying ahead of fueling and hydration. Travel conservatively, keep transitions efficient, and look out for your partners as well as yourself.Know the conditions, have a plan, and remember that your safety is your responsibility.

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts. 

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