East Slopes North

Finally, snow is back in the forecast! This first round of snow should be light and is unlikely to raise the avalanche danger from Low on Wednesday.  If you travel above treeline, observe how fresh wind-drifted snow is bonding to the old snow surface. 

Change is in the air after two weeks of dry weather.  A weak weather system should bring a trace to a few inches of snow and wind on Wednesday.  Any fresh snow is a welcome sight and should gradually improve travel conditions.  Unless this first round of weather is more intense than forecast, it's unlikely to move us off of Low danger.

Shallow new wind slabs are unlikely to be a problem tomorrow, but if an avalanche problem does develop, that would be the one. Keep an eye out for blowing snow and freshly drifted snow near and below ridgelines.  Test how the new snow is bonding to the old snow surface.  Subsequent storms over the next few days will gradually stack up more snow and along with a warming trend, give us some new snow avalanche problems to consider moving forward.  

Heading into this storm cycle, travel conditions were highly variable and challenging in some areas.  Rough-textured surfaces at all elevations, including old rain runnels/rills, crusts of varying thickness, and firm snow rounded out the medley of conditions out there.  While a falling cornice is unlikely, they are still large and overhanging and warrant evaluation for overhead hazard.  If you're in an area without new snow, be prepared for firm snow surfaces.   Use caution and make sure you have the right tools to arrest a fall before crossing a steep, slick slope. 

On Sunday, an NWAC Forecaster near Cutthroat Lake found widespread surface hoar below the inversion line, and that shaded, northerly aspects had a thin, weak surface crust with faceted grains beneath.  Southerly aspects above recent inversions had a supportable melt-freeze crust and a strong upper snowpack.