Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A couple inches of snow will soften surfaces in the Stevens Pass zone on Tuesday. As you gain elevation and make your way towards larger and more exposed slopes, it's possible you could trigger a small avalanche in wind drifted snow. Travel in the trees and at lower elevations is difficult and snow surfaces are variable- if you head out, be prepared for an adventure. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    We're just barely getting enough snow to take the avalanche danger out of the green for Tuesday. Two to three inches of snow could fall by the end of the day, and light to moderate winds will shift snow into slabs up to around six inches. These shallow slabs could react to a human trigger. If we get more snow than forecasted, you can expect slightly larger slabs and more reactivity.

    Avalanche size isn't expected to be large enough to bury you, but if you're in high-consequence terrain such as above rocks, trees, cliffs, or gullies, getting caught in an avalanche, even if shallow, could still take you for a dangerous ride. This is especially concerning considering how shallow the snowpack currently is, with many early-season hazards exposed.  On south-facing aspects a smooth, firm surface will be under any new snow, which may slide easily on the underlying layer. On other aspects, especially northerly and at higher elevations. a few inches of soft snow is present underneath the newly fallen snow. Snow may slide easily on the new/old snow interface.  For Tuesday, if you travel above snowline, identify thicker drifts of snow and steer clear of them on slopes steeper than 30°. 

    Example photo: An illustration of early-season wind loading.

Avalanche Discussion

Snowline is staying quite low in the Stevens Pass zone for the current weather event. You can expect rain and moist surfaces a little ways below pass level. We don't expect much wet loose avalanche activity to happen, as much of the snow is already previously so rain-affected and refrozen at the lower elevations. Your largest concern, especially at lower elevations, is challenging travel with rough, irregular and patchy snow. Beware of open or shallowly covered creeks, rocks and stumps. 

I traveled out to Smithbrook on Sunday and on low angle terrain and all aspects aside from south I found a 3-foot snow base between 4000-5000ft. The bottom half of the snowpack is moist grains, covered by up to two feet of snow that fell Dec 9-10.  This was then capped by rain up to elevations above 6000ft. Most locations now have a semi-breakable crust near the surface. Rain runnels were present on all surfaces where I traveled, up to 6000ft. South-facing aspects were notably different from other aspects, having fully transformed to melt-freeze grains and the snowpack is much shallower, with a two-foot snowpack at 5700'. The snow was all wet, aside from a possible surface freeze. 

Previous to the current storm, 1-2 inches of snow accumulated on Thursday. This snow remained dry and low density on shady aspects. Small, weak surface hoar crystals may have formed on this old snow surface which might cause new slabs to be more reactive.

Stevens Pass Ski Area is open. Check uphill policies HERE.

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