Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

A warm, wet, and windy storm is on the doorstep this morning.  Expect avalanche danger to rise rapidly as this storm impacts the forecast area.  Given a very reactive snowpack and a potent storm starting to impact the eastern Turnagain Arm today, travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We have issued an Avalanche Warning through the National Weather Service, in effect from 6 am today through 6 am tomorrow for Anchorage, Girdwood, Portage, Turnagain Pass, Summit Lake, Lost Lake, and Seward.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Eastern Turnagain Arm and interior Kenai Peninsula to include Turnagain Pass.

Roof avalanches are a strong possibility today in lower elevation communities such as Moose Pass, Seward, and Girdwood.  Pay close attention to children, people, pets, and vehicles under roofs that may shed snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent avalanches: One large natural avalanche was reported on the south side of Tenderfoot on Saturday.  Aleph and Marc saw evidence of a large natural avalanche on a SW aspect between Silvertip and Wilson South yesterday.  Additionally, the Turnagain Pass zone has seen over a dozen human-triggered avalanches since Sunday and harbors a very similar snowpack structure to Summit Lake right now.

    With incoming weather and a snowpack that is progressively closer to its breaking point, this is a day to avoid avalanche terrain, period.  An atmospheric river is impacting southcentral Alaska today.  This will bring strong winds, warming temperatures and significant precipitation in the form of rain at lower elevations and snow in the mountains. This is really the first strong shock to the well documented facet/ crust combination that has been responsible for a dozen or more human-triggered avalanches in the Turnagain Pass zone since Sunday, mostly failing remotely.   Natural avalanches are likely and human-triggered avalanches are very likely with conditions becoming increasingly more dangerous as the storm intensifies and daylight fades.  

     

    (1/14/2026)

    Crown of a large natural avalanche on the southwest aspect of the ridge from Silvertip to Wilson South that crossed multiple gully features.

    Photo: Marc Heifetz

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As today's storm intensifies, we may see snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour building up dangerous storm slabs and wind slabs.  If avalanches are not failing on facets deeper in the snowpack, storm slabs can be expected within the new snow.  Again, with a snowpack this close to its breaking point, travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended today.

    (1/15/2026)

    Graphic is courtesy of the National Weather Service, Anchorage office

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