Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Rainfall should taper off by Thursday morning, but wet, saturated snow will remain. Avoid travel below cliffs, cornices, or other steep, snow-covered features that could shed wet snow. Anticipate landslides and downed trees when accessing trailheads off - or maybe even on - the beaten path.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The anticipated cool-down in temperatures and the end of precipitation should quell avalanche activity where there is still enough snow to slide. But don't expect any snowpack left standing to dry up immediately. Depending on elevation and the extent of snow cover, there is still a low chance of seeing wet loose and wet slab avalanches, cornice fall, or snow shedding from rocks and cliffs.

    The main danger isn't so much triggering a wet avalanche on steep snow-covered slopes; it's that wet, saturated snowpacks tend to unload sporadically even after precipitation ends. Keep an eye on what is above you if you make it into the mountains on Friday, and don't linger under anything else that looks wet, sketchy, and poorly attached to the mountain.

     

    (1/14/2022)

    An example of seemingly harmless, wet, snowy terrain that can dump snow on your head well after it stops raining.

Avalanche Discussion

The full length of the Cascade Range has just received an obscene amount of rain,  and there's still another 2-4 inches in the forecast overnight into Thursday morning.  The Schmidt House precipitation gauge is showing over 5 inches of precipitation in the last 24 hours, and ridgeline temperatures are still in the high 30s and low 40s. It's safe to say it is still raining well into upper elevations. 

What has been the outcome so far besides river flooding and landslides? It's hard to say. If this sort of rain fell on a healthy, mid-winter snowpack, we would expect to see very large to historic-sized avalanches run full length to the valley bottom, laying waste to anything in their path. But in most areas, the snowpack was dismal at best and already heavily rain-affected at mid-elevations.  Snowpack depths quickly increased as one climbed above 6000 feet, so drier snow up higher likely had a more adverse reaction to rainfall as usual.

Between heavy rain and poor visibility, no backcountry avalanche observations were submitted as of Wednesday afternoon. But it's a safe bet that upper elevation areas experienced some amount of natural activity in the form of wet loose and other types of wet avalanches. A few inches of dry new snow could accumulate at upper elevations as snow levels fall. Keep an eye out for shallow pockets of wind drifted snow if you make it up there on Friday.

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.

 

 

 

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