Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Recent snowfall and an increase in northerly winds last night maintain the dangerous conditions.  Natural avalanches remain possible with ongoing wind loading.  The most dangerous conditions can be found on the northern half of the compass near and above treeline and freshly drifted terrain features facing southerly aspects.  Direct feedback, like cracking and collapsing, has been sporadic, so don't count on a warning before you trigger a dangerous avalanche.  You can find less worrisome structures in wind sheltered sunny terrain, slopes below 10,000 feet, or safer yet, features less than about 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A mix of depth hoar, facets, and faceted crusts buried 2 to 3 feet deep are reactive to human and remote triggers. Northerly and easterly facing terrain near and above treeline has been most active due to thicker slabs over well-developed weak layers. The lower half of the snowpack is highly variable, shaped by early-season droughts, record-warm temperatures, rain, and past extreme wind events. As a result, expect inconsistent feedback as you move across aspects, elevations, or even different parts of the same slope. Cracking and collapsing are obvious signs of instability, although your first clear signal could be a dangerous avalanche. The most reliable way to manage this problem is by choosing slopes less than 30 degrees. Wind-eroded terrain, lower elevation southerly slopes, and elevations below ~10,000' offer less risky options, where slabs are less common and weak layers are often capped by stronger crusts. 

    A large, remotely triggered avalanche broke on weak layers near the ground on Monday above West Brush Creek.  (1/6/2026) Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    In the Southeast Mountains, up to six inches of new snow fell on Thursday, possibly more at upper elevations, along with a notable increase in northerly winds last night.  You could encounter sensitive wind-drifted slabs on higher-elevation southerly terrain and slopes facing west-north-east due to a layer of surface hoar that formed on Wednesday night.  Use extra caution on the north half of the compass, as a triggered avalanche in the storm snow could release a much larger avalanche deeper in the snowpack.  Cracking is a clear sign of a problem in the storm snow.  Avoid terrain with active or recent windloading to reduce the risk of triggering an avalanche in the storm snow.

    A Storm Slab avalanche from last week in sheltered terrain at lower elevations.

    Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Frequent stormy weather since Christmas has produced multiple natural avalanche cycles and recent human-triggered avalanches (West Brush Creek, Mount Axtell).  The evidence clearly indicates that dangerous conditions exist on the north half of the compass above about 10,500 feet and wind-drifted features on upper elevation sunny aspects.  Expect that triggered avalanches will be large enough to bury, injure, and kill you.

Uncertainty persists for some terrain.  Northerly slopes, below roughly 10,500 feet, have been relatively quiet through the past few storms due to the Christmas rain crust capping basal weak layers.  However, Zach's recent trip out West Brush Creek produced cracking and collapsing, and my trip near Pittsburg and the Anthracite Range produced moderate propagating test results beneath a 2 to 3 foot slab.  It is difficult to know when and where the first large avalanche may occur below treeline, but suspicion increases with each loading event.

In contrast, some parts of the Southeast Mountains, below about 10,000 feet, have a much shallower snowpack.  These areas offer a lower risk of avalanche as the snowpack often lacks a slab.  Observations from lower Cement Creek and near the Snodgrass trailhead illustrate the thinner conditions and the corresponding risk reduction.

Although higher-elevation sunny terrain is not emphasized on the Persistent Slab problem rose, incremental loading over the past two weeks may produce avalanches outside the “most likely” locations shown in the distribution rose. A recent human-triggered avalanche near Marble demonstrates this potential, and a natural avalanche on the southerly side of Mount Baldy may signal a developing concern—especially as northerly winds continue to load upper-elevation southerly terrain.  Carefully assess the snowpack before riding steep southerly terrain to prevent a surprise.

Upcoming Events:  

Jan 10 Trailhead Day: Snodgrass 10 am-2 pm

Jan 13 Fireside Chat:  Kim Grant from Silverton Mountain at Zuni West Brewing 5-7 pm

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