Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Conditions remain dangerous across all forecast zones. There is still a good chance that a person will trigger a large avalanche failing on a weak layer of snow buried 2 to 4' deep. This setup is unusual for our area; despite the extended spell of quiet weather, people are still triggering large avalanches from flat terrain connected to steeper slopes. Travel carefully today, and avoid spending time on or below steep slopes.

___________________________________

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS: Support this avalanche forecast with Pick.Click.Give. today! Please consider participating in the Pick.Click.Give program as you apply for your Alaska PFD this year. Your contribution to the Friends of the Chugach Avalanche Center helps to fund 50% of our annual operating budget. This covers weather station maintenance, safety equipment, forecaster salaries, research projects, and ensures professional, daily avalanche advisories all winter long for your favorite backcountry ski and snowmachine zones on the Chugach National Forest and Chugach State Park. THANK YOU!

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: There was a widespread avalanche cycle last weekend, with multiple natural and human-triggered avalanches recorded from Anchorage to Seward.  

    We're looking at another day of quiet weather with unusually warm temperatures at higher elevations, and not much has changed with the dangerous snowpack we've been dealing with. The problem is a layer of weak, faceted snow buried 2 to 4' deep that has been producing large avalanches, rolling collapses, and poor stability test results all week. This is not the typical new-snow avalanche problem we are used to, and it has been catching even experienced travelers by surprise. These persistent weak layers are slow to heal, and there is still a good chance a person will trigger a very large avalanche today.

    A few things to keep in mind as you plan your day:

    • Multiple avalanches have been triggered remotely over the past week, from flat terrain connected to steeper slopes.
    • We've seen people trigger avalanches that wiped out several sets of previous tracks.
    • The most recent known human-triggered avalanche occurred six days after the last major loading event.
    • The combination of a stiff slab sitting on top of a deeply buried weak layer means we may not see any warning signs (collapsing, shooting cracks, poor test results), even though conditions are primed to trigger a big avalanche.

    The best way to manage this challenging snowpack is to use simple, low-angle terrain. This includes limiting overhead terrain exposure, since multiple large avalanches have been triggered from the flats. It also means avoiding slopes with terrain traps, which increase the consequences of being caught in a slide. This extended spell of warm, quiet weather is slowly giving the snowpack time to adjust, but for now we are still tiptoeing around while the weak layer heals.

    (1/19/2026)

    This avalanche is not huge, but slopes like this can be a major problem if they run into terrain traps like gullies or creeks.

    Photo: Nathan Baird

Regions covered