Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There is still a good chance of triggering a large avalanche on buried weak layers 2 to 4' deep.  To enjoy the new snow coming today while staying safe, we recommend sticking to simple, low-angle terrain and avoiding steep slopes overhead. The weak layer we are currently dealing with has produced many remotely triggered avalanches, which means you can trigger an avalanche from low-angle slopes onto adjacent steeper terrain. 

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: The last known avalanche activity in the Seward and Lost Lake zone was during and immediately after the atmospheric river event, which occurred just over a week ago, from January 16th to 19th. 

    We are entering a new, more stubborn phase of this persistent weak layer, where avalanches and red flags are starting to become less common, but the potential for triggering a large and dangerous avalanche 2 to 4' deep still exists. When the snowpack is giving us less direct feedback, it can be tempting to start edging back into steeper terrain. But even for seasoned avalanche pros, it is impossible to predict when and where the next big avalanche on this weak layer might be triggered. The only reliable way to avoid the potential for triggering a dangerous avalanche on the December facet layer is to stay patient and stick to low-angle terrain. Remotely triggered avalanches have been especially common on this weak layer, which means you could trigger an avalanche from low-angle terrain onto connected steeper terrain. 

    The new snow expected today is not going to add enough weight to really stress our current snowpack. However, throughout the week, we are expecting snowfall to continue to pile up, and this incremental loading will eventually tip the scales and make the weak layer more reactive to human triggering and potentially cause natural avalanches. Stay tuned to see how these storms roll in and how much new snow we get this week!

    (1/19/2026)

    Snowmachine-triggered avalanche in Lost Lake. This is a short slope, but the debris was concentrated in a gully. Nobody was caught or carried that we are aware of.

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