Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It's going to be much warmer and less windy on Monday than the previous day. Snow will get wetter and softer as the sun intensifies. If you're sinking a few inches down into heavy, wet snow, or see any natural avalanche activity, then avoid similar steep slopes and lower angle terrain beneath those slopes. Likewise, avoid travel beneath large, gaping glide cracks or hefty, sagging cornices. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It will be a few degrees warmer and there will be less wind than the previous day, so wet avalanche concerns remain. Lots of low-elevation terrain is melted out, but you could still see wet avalanches or snow shedding from cliffs anywhere there is sufficient coverage. Keep an eye on what’s above you at all times.

    Likelihood of natural and human-triggered wet avalanches increases as snow becomes more wet and mushy. Limit travel on or under steep slopes seeing direct sun or where you see signs of instability like rollerballs or small avalanches. Even north-facing slopes with previously dry snow may get sticky and moist, starting as rollerballs and then avalanching as snow continues to get heavier. There may be more activity on north aspects than any other locations, since pockets of dry snow were reported at elevations above 5500ft on Sunday. 

    Even if natural activity is limited, your entry onto a steep, mushy slope could initiate a wet avalanche, so if you're sinking more than 2-3 inches into the snow, just avoid steep slopes. In general, if you start seeing any avalanches that entrain more snow, growing deeper and larger than your average small slide, it's time to start thinking about retreating from any terrain that could be affected by these slides and giving these areas a wide berth. 

     

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Snow could release from rocky faces, and cornices can collapse as temperatures soar with little overnight freeze. These “shed-style” avalanches are hard to predict, and can happen at any time of day or night. Pay attention to what’s above you, and limit the time you spend on or under these features.

    If there's even a small chunk of snow that breaks off a rocky perch, it may initiate a larger wet avalanche on a slope beneath it.  This may be the extent of natural activity we see on Monday, although it's very difficult to predict exactly how it'll pan out. Don’t linger below cornices, or rocky features and cliffs holding soggy, melting snow. 

    An old photo of large glide cracks, which you might start seeing on Monday. Steer around terrain beneath these features. 

    Photo: Lee Lazzara

Avalanche Discussion

Preliminary Report: NWAC is saddened to report an avalanche fatality as a result of a cornice fall on Mount St. Helens. On Friday, March 29, 2024, a snowboarder summited the peak. While standing near the top, he triggered a cornice and fell into the crater triggering a large slab avalanche on the slope below. NWAC is working with  theSkamania Co Sheriff’s office and SAR to compile a report. Our deepest condolences to the family, friends, and community.

Discussion

Strong winds were reported at upper elevations on Sunday. Plenty of snow transport was seen, but observers commented the winds were strong enough that most of the snow sublimated (evaporated) rather than building into slabs. This was the case from 5500-7100ft on Heliotrope Ridge on the north side of Baker.

If you travel to upper elevations on Monday there's a slim chance that a few pockets of cold, dry snow may still exist. We don’t expect significant wind slab concerns, however be on the lookout for them. Consider the additional risk of even a small, isolated pocket that could knock you off your feet in high consequence terrain, sending you off a cliff or into trees, rocks, or a gully. On Saturday, a backcountry ski party reported triggering a small slab avalanche in the West Central Zone and one of them was buried in a crevasse (OBSERVATION). Thankfully they were recovered unharmed. We're so glad everyone emerged unscathed, and it's a great reminder that the consequences of even a tiny avalanche can be magnified when you're in high consequence terrain.

At mid and upper elevations, 1-2 feet of snow sits over the mid-March crust. Lower elevations generally do not have enough snow for avalanche activity. The layers of new snow that have fallen since March 23rd are settling and bonding well to the crust below. Identifiable layer interfaces show no propation in testing. You can read more details about this from several Saturday Observations including my OBSERVATION at Glacier Creek and another OBSERVATION from the Sahale Peak. 

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the avalanche community. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations HERE. 

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