Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Rising temperatures and sunshine will rapidly weaken the snowpack, increasing the risk of both natural and human-triggered avalanches. Persistent snowpack problems tend to come alive when they're overlapped with  wet snow problems. Expect uncertainty in the timing of avalanches today. It is advisable to avoid slopes exceeding 30 degrees and to steer clear of runout zones, particularly beneath sunny aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    As sunshine and warmth intensify, anticipate a heightened risk of wet loose avalanches. Predicting when slopes will become unstable is challenging, as they may exhibit minimal signs of instability before avalanching shortly thereafter. Wet instabilities can develop rapidly and fail without warning. It is crucial to be aware of your location and the hazards above you when traveling today, particularly noting steep roadbanks, slopes beneath rock outcroppings, and sun-exposed slopes.

    Warm temperatures and sunshine cause surface snow to melt, draining into the snowpack. This often increases the likelihood of failure on old buried persistent weak layers. Recent forecasts have highlighted the stubbornness and resistance to failure of these persistent layers, but with the rapid change in conditions, this is likely to alter over the next few days. Wet avalanches can occur suddenly, triggered by snowmobiles, skiers, or natural processes.

    Indicators such as wet punchy snow, rollerballs, and wet surface snow signify rapid weakening of the snowpack. Timing will vary with aspect and elevation, as lower elevations experience warmer temperatures than upper elevations, and east and south-facing slopes receive direct sunlight before north and west-facing slopes.

    Graphic shows predicted temps at Bear Mt. over the next 48 hours.

    Photo: Ben Bernall

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Friday marks the onset of significant warmth enveloping our region. Freezing temperatures will be brief, confined to only a couple of hours at night in high elevations. The valley floor is poised to experience temperatures in the 50s throughout the weekend, with ridgelines at 6000 feet hovering in the mid-40s. As soon as the sun hits them, slopes will begin to warm, signaling an uptick in avalanche danger.

    Initially, the sun will impact east-facing slopes, followed by the gradual warming of south-facing slopes. While south-facing slopes will bear the brunt of solar radiation, caution is warranted even on shady slopes. Given the forecasted warmth and the awakening of persistent weak layers, it's advised to steer clear of any steep slopes today. Signs of wet loose activity are anticipated, with the potential for deeper wet slab avalanches to be triggered as they descend the slope.

    Neighboring forecast zones and centers are also experiencing this warm-up and anticipate similar challenges. Avalanche Canada has rated the danger as High across all their zones in British Columbia and Alberta. Today may be best spent dusting off  your mountain bike or dirt bike for the upcoming season.

    Exercise caution and enjoy the sunshine!

Avalanche Discussion

Friday will be the first day of the warm us hitting us in full effect. Freezing temperatures will be limited to a couple hours at night at igh elevations. the valley floor is expected to see temeratures in the 50's throughout the weekend. Ridgelines at 6000 feet could see temperatures it the mid 40's.  Slopes will start to warm up as soon as the sun its them and the avalanche danger will start to increase as well. The sun will first start to effect the east facing slopes the starting to warm up south facing slopes next. South facing slopes will take the brunt of the solar radiation but don't be fooled by shady slopes. With temperatures forecasted to be as awarm as they are and persistant weak layers coming alive, any steep slope should be given a wide berth today. I anticipate seeing signs of wet loose activity today, however wet loose avalanches can trigger deeper wet slab avalanches as they move downhill. 

Neighboring forecast zones and forecast centers are experiencing the same warm up and anticipate the same problems. Avalanche Canada has rated the danger at High across all of there zones in Brtish Columbia and Alberta.  Today might be a good day to dust off the mountasin bike and get it ready for the season. 

Take care and enjoy the sunshine!

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