Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger is generally low across the San Francisco Peaks and Kachina Peaks Wilderness. Low danger does not mean zero hazard, and there is a very small chance that a backcountry traveler could trigger a persistent slab avalanche. Though unlikely, if a person were to trigger a persistent slab avalanche, it would likely be where the snowpack is less than 120cm deep on a northerly or northeasterly aspect above 11,000'. 

There's a high wind warning today, especially above/near treeline. Ski and splitboard crampons will help to prevent falls on steep, icy slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    It's been over three weeks since our extensive natural avalanche cycle of February 8/9, when slabs released on persistent weak layers near/at the ground and mid-snowpack. The weak layers (facets) near the bottom of the snowpack are still present in some areas. They are rounding and bonding on more solar aspects but continue to mature on thin, northerly aspects. The slabs over most of the weak layers are very strong. This strong "bridge" over the weak layers will most likely inhibit a human's weight from triggering any failures in the weak layers near/at the ground. 

    Although it is very unlikely that a skier or rider will trigger a persistent slab avalanche, if they did, the avalanche might be large enough to cause a full burial. To virtually eliminate this problem from your travels, avoid steep slopes (>34°) with a thin snowpack (<120 cm) on ~NW, N, and NE aspects above 11,000'. 

    There were many natural persistent slab avalanches on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects on Feb. 8/9. 

    Crown in Silverton path. This avalanche likely occurred on Feb. 8 or 9. 

    2/15/2024 photo by Paul Dawson.

Avalanche Discussion

Most stability tests and observations show that the snowpack has become increasingly stable and that the avalanche hazard is low overall. 

Gnarly winds continue today. With little to no snow available for transport on windward slopes, new windslabs are not expected. Any powder snow suspended by today's strong winds will likely be carried away rather than re-deposit into windslabs. The winds have removed snow from high-elevation areas on the exterior of the extinct stratovolcano, as seen in the Allison Clay photo below. However, coverage remains in the more wind-sheltered caldera, as seen in the Inner Basin photos. Some powder snow may still be found in wind-protected northerly slopes, but it will not be extensive or deep.

Ski or splitboard crampons are recommended for wind-hardened and icy slopes above and near treeline. Expect a melt/freeze surface on most sunny aspects. 

There have been no human triggered avalanches reported this season. There were many natural persistent slab avalanches on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects on Feb. 8/9. 

For recent observations, clickhere. 

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