Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are possible today.   These small avalanches may turn large by stepping down and triggering a persistent slab avalanche deeper in the snowpack.  Use caution and watch for signs of instability, shooting cracks and whumpfing . Small avalanches can have  consequences when above exposed or rocky terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Storm Slab avalanches often release at or below the trigger point. Watch for signs of instability including cracking,  whumpfing  and recent avalanches.   Areas of danger will have more than 12" of new snow. The forecast is calling for an additional 6-10" of snow at 10,500'. If that does not occur and wind continues, this problem will quickly transition to a wind slab problem. Winds out of the SSE will have transported additional snow to leeward slopes.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Basal facets buried at the bottom of the snowpack continue to persist on northern facing slopes in a few locations.  In general, these facets seem to be nearly gone, except in rocky and talus bed surfaces.  Over the last week to two weeks, in stability tests they have not produced propagation, including those conducted in pits averaging just 50 cm.  Nonetheless, skiers and riders should continue to exercise caution in the starting zones of steep chutes.  In addition, facets have been found near a crust layer in the upper part of the snowpack.  This upper layer of facets has been found beneath north, east, and west facing surface crusts.  These facets have been reactive in collum tests but also not producing propagation in ECT. This could change with new snow over 20". 

    The variable conditions across terrain make this problem difficult to assess, and it is possible that some slopes still harbor reactive layers near and at the bottom of the snowpack.  The only way to fully know if this persistent weak layer is still present and possibly reactivity is to dig.  Given the mostly rocky bed surface strewn across the San Francisco Peaks; this problem could still produce a small to large avalanche capable of burying a skier or rider.  

Avalanche Discussion

As is often the case, conditions across the Peaks are variable.  Backcountry travelers should also be aware that the persistent slab issue, while mostly gone, could still produce small to large avalanches, especially if a loose avalanche or wind slab were to step down deeper into the snowpack. If this were to occur, this type of avalanche would be much more dangerous as it might release with a crown height of several feet.  This could easily result in a large enough avalanche to cause a full burial.  The probability of this type of avalanche is very low, but north facing steep chutes and paths are the most probable locations.  

Many south facing slopes and above treeline areas have been stripped to rock over the last few weeks. This new snow will hide many of the rocks and obstacles just below the surface.  Ski and ride with care and watch for the remote possibility of small avalanches or funky conditions carrying a skier or rider over steep or rocky terrain.  

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Much thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season and a big thank you to all our participants!

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