Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
Snow is expected to continue during the day on Tuesday and taper off during the night, bringing an additional 5-10 cm for the interior regions by Wednesday morning. A weak upper ridge is forecast to build over the southern interior on Wednesday that should cause light southwesterly winds and scattered flurries. There may be periods of sun in the eastern Monashees and Selkirks, and in the northern Purcells. A weak upper trough is forecast to push up from the U.S. border on Thursday bringing moderate precipitation to the southern and Eastern regions. Freezing levels are expected to climb up to about 1800 metres as the trough advances. The upper flow is expected to shift to the southeast with light alpine winds, broken skies with sunny periods, and freezing levels up to 1800 metres in the south and east regions of the interior.
Avalanche Summary
We have one report from Monday of natural avalanches up to size 3.5 on southerly aspects failing down about 100-150 cm on the mid-february persistent weak layer (PWL). Avalanches releasing on this layer are becoming less frequent. Large triggers like cornice fall may initiate a release on the PWL.
Snowpack Summary
Strong southerly winds combined with new snow to develop thin new windslabs in the alpine and at treeline. Sunny breaks on Sunday caused moist snow up to about 2400 metres on solar aspects and up to about 1500 metres on all aspects. The recent storm snow is reported to have settled and bonded in most areas. Recent cornice growth has made cornices unstable. The new snow has added to the well consolidated storm slab that overlies weak surfaces that formed early February. This interface, which lies between 1 and 2 metres below the surface, includes a widespread surface hoar instability that, depending on aspect and elevation, may exist in combination with facets or crusts.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.