Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Human triggered wind slab avalanches are possible 1-2 feet in depth on slopes loaded by recent south wind.   Above freezing temperatures at low elevations will allow wet loose activity to occur during the heat of the day.  Cloud cover may limit the amount of wet loose activity that occurs.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The last few days of clear weather have have brought on an unusual wind loading pattern.  Instead of our typical N-NE outflow wind we usually see during periods of high pressure, we are receiving south wind that has been stronger at high elevations than forecasted.  Expect to find northerly aspects loaded in specific areas on the lee side of  upper elevation ridgelines that will be possible for a person or machine to trigger 1-2 feet in depth.  These also exist at mid elevations , but have been observed as being shallower and more scattered.  

    Pay attention to wind slab distribution, depth and sensitivity in the area you choose to travel.  Were signs of instability exist such as shooting cracks or collapsing triggering a wind slab remains possible.

    (2/15/2024) Photo: Joshua McDonald

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The snowfall event from 2/9-10 has now settled out to a little less than 2 feet in depth.  This snow is sitting on near surface facets in most locations.  Despite the weak snow that new snow is sitting on very few natural avalanches have been observed and users have been stepping out into steeper terrain with good stability observed.  

    The 2/9  interface is showing signs of bonding with ECT tests moving from moderate propagation scores directly following the storm to hard or no results in the last couple of days.  Above average daytime temperatures at all elevations followed by cold nights are promoting the healing process.  

    We can't yet rule out the possibility of human triggered avalanches at this layer due to the presence of facets at the interface and the depth of the slab above, which has the potential to make dangerous avalanches.

     

    (2/8/2024)

    Faceted snow was created during clear, calm, cold 2/6-8.  This snow is now buried by 2-3 feet of snow from 2/9-10 and is currently a layer of concern.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose activity is possible once again today as temperatures above freezing are expected at low elevations.  The degree of this activity may be limited by cloud cover.  

    If you choose to travel on southerly aspects today pay attention to the effect the sun is having on the surface snow.  Is the surface becoming moist?  Is this wet snow more than a few inches deep?   If the answer is yes, then avoid traveling on and exposing yourself to steep solar aspects.  Even small avalanches can have the power to knock you off your feet or bury you if you are in a terrain trap.

Avalanche Discussion

Stability conditions today will be similar to yesterday with upper snowpack stability slowly on the increase.  Instabilities in the mid and lower snowpack are not expected.  Wind slabs created by southerly winds are the main concern of the day.  These can be found on the lee side of high elevation ridgelines and remain possible to trigger.  The persistent storm slab is showing signs of gaining strength, however, continued assessment is advised as faceted snow is notorious for producing unexpected avalanches well after a loading event.  

Wet loose activity will likely be subdued today by cloud cover but can't be ruled out as temperatures are expected to rise above the freezing mark at low elevations.

 Glide cracks have been observed in all three forecast zones.   Some of these have recently been obscured by new snowfall, making them more difficult to identify.   Avoid traveling beneath these as full depth avalanches can release unexpectedly.

Valdez season snowfall: 240  inches

Valdez February snowfall: 34 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 84 inches

Thompson Pass snowfall data is currently unavailable

46 mile height of snowpack: N/O

Regions covered