The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E at and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches are likely failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2-3 feet below the surface. This weak layer can also be found on slopes facing W, but sun and warm temperature last week have made avalanches on this weak layer less likely. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on West facing slopes.
You will find a MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche in wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline.
South facing terrain at and below treeline offers a LOW danger.
A persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow sits beneath a slab 1'-2' thick. New and wind drifted snow now sits on top of this slab adding more stress to the buried weak layer. Human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are likely, primarily on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E but W facing slopes are also suspect.
Shifting winds over the past few days have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects at upper elevations. SW winds yesterday created fresh drifts on northerly facing slopes. In these areas, newly drifted snow has added more weight and stress to the buried persistent weak layer increasing the likelihood for a deeper, more dangerous avalanche. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north side of the compass.
No recent avalanches have been reported from the Abajo Mountains.
Northerly winds are mostly light and temps are frigid. Today look for clear skies, continued light northerly winds, and high temps at 10,000' approaching 20F. Dry weather continues through the weekend and into next week. A weak system might bring a chance for snow on Wed.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard SNOTEL (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson SNOTEL (8858')
Snowpack
Snow over the past week has been enough to create dangerous conditions and human triggered avalanches, 1'-2' remain likely. The problem is a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that formed during the extended period of high pressure in Jan-Feb. Starting last week, this weak layer has been getting buried and a slab 1'-2' deep exists on top. Recent wind drifting has added more stress to this weak layer and all that is needed is a trigger such as the weight of a skier or snowmobile. This problem exists primarily on slopes facing W-N-NE-E.
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
