Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist as there is a variety of avalanche problems to be concerned with today.  You can trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche that fails on weak layers buried 3 to 5 feet down beneath the surface. Moderate to strong winds over the last 24 hours have been transporting the recent snow into sensitive wind slabs near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain.  The threat of loose snow avalanches will increase throughout the day in steep terrain with warming temperatures and our intense sun this time of year.  Challenging and complex avalanche conditions exist at all elevations and aspects, cautious route-finding and conservative decision making are essential today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong winds are easily transporting recent snow into stiffening wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain.  These winds have been shifting from the SW to W to NW over the last 24 hours. Watch for obvious wind drifted pillows and stiffening of the surface. Shooting cracks off your boards are indications that you've found unstable snow. Avoid slopes that are actively loading. If traveling on ridgelines pay attention to cornices that may break back further than expected.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Persistent weak layers are now buried under 3 to 5-foot slabs and will continue to struggle to adjust to this latest round of loading. These avalanches will be large and destructive propagating widely across slopes and able to run long distances well into the flats and could be unsurvivable.   Shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may or may not be present and give you a false sense of security.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins on the slab and near rock outcrops where you're more likely to impact these buried weak layers.  You can trigger these avalanches from a distance away or from well below.  With snow continuing to drift at upper elevations, slopes that didn't avalanche during the latest storm will continue load stressing deeper weak layers.

    Persistent weak layers are buried below new snow from storms over last week.  These weak layers are still well preserved under the overlying slab.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    It's that time of year with a high sun angle and warming temperatures after a storm that loose wet or dry snow avalanches will continue to be a concern.  These types of avalanches typically start as a point release around rock bands and can entrain more snow as it travels the slope.  Loose snow avalanches are typically small, but with a lot of recent snow that can be entrained as it moves down the slope, these avalanches could grow in size to be able to bury you.  This is especially true if it piles up in a terrain trap.  Natural loose snow avalanches are likely today as the day warms up and on steep slopes that are directly in the sun.  Any steep slope that hasn't been wind affected has the potential to sluff while skiing and could knock you off your feet. 

    Loose snow avalanches on southerly facing terrain yesterday that started around rock bands and fanning out as they traveled down the slope.

Avalanche Discussion

A warming trend will continue today with temperatures climbing into the 20's and upper 30's under sunny skies.  Winds have been in the 15 to 20 mph over the last 24 hours but have recently picked up to the 30 mph range gusting in the 40's.  As I write this snow is billowing off the Vallecito ridgelines. Over the last week, the Sangre de Cristo mountains here in NM have picked up close to 5 feet of snow and over 4" of SWE.  Thursday's storm of 16 - 20 inches and 1.4" of water was enough to push many slopes past their tipping point and we had a widespread natural avalanche cycle with the bulls-eye being northerly and east aspects near and above treeline.  Based on crowns being filled back in, it looks like it didn't long at the start of the storm for many slopes to natural avalanche.  The most obvious type of avalanche you'll observe in your travels is loose snow avalanches in steep terrain that relived themselves at the tail end of Thursday's storm or during the day Friday.  Yesterday in travels winds increased during the day and were easily transporting snow at upper elevations.  

Well preserved weak layers continue to remain deeper down in the snowpack buried beneath 3 to 5-foot slabs that have built up over the last week's storms. These faceted weak layers formed over high-pressure periods in January and February and are typically sandwiched between crusts or old decomposing slabs.  These faceted layers are found beneath an obvious dust layer that formed on 2/22 from a strong wind event. On many slopes, this dust layer was the old existing surface prior to the snow that has fallen over the last week.  These weak layers are widespread and can be found at all elevations with northerly through east aspects being the bulls-eye as these are slopes where we've seen the most amount of loading.  Prior to this storm, we had very warm temperatures and sunny days that created melt-freeze crusts of varying thickness and strengths on lower elevation terrain and solar aspects.  Thicker stronger crusts will be better equipped to handle more weight, but may just need you to find a sweet spot where the crust is less supportable. 

 

Regardless of whether it's a persistent slab, wind slab, or loose snow avalanche dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the mountains today. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and a conservative mindset are essential.    Unfortunately, this type of deep powder snow will force you into steeper terrain in order to make a turn.  It'll be another bluebird powder day tempting you to chase the steep and deep.  Fight that urge as we let the snowpack adjust to this latest round of snow.

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