Gunnison

The recent mild weather has created generally safe avalanche conditions. The above-average early-season snowpack has made for surprisingly good skiing and riding in the snow-favored mountains, primarily to the west and northwest of Crested Butte. If you are traveling in steep avalanche terrain above 12,000ft, keep your eye out for old hard slabs on the lee sides of ridgelines. Those slabs are expected to be isolated in distribution and unlikely to trigger.  Otherwise, keep those tips up and enjoy the quiet conditions before the avalanche danger ramps up next week. 

The last round of snowfall produced about 3"to 9" of snow on Tuesday, 11/19. Light to moderate westerly winds accompanied that snow and formed small wind slabs at upper elevations. By the following day, observers had already noted that any instability in that new snow was settling out. We have since seen mild weather with high temperatures climbing into the 30s and 40s. The freezing level on Friday made it all the way up to around 13,000ft. We recorded a few small, wet loose avalanches at the beginning of this warmup. Otherwise, avalanche conditions have become quiet for the time being. 

The snowpack in the Gunnison River Basin is currently sitting at 120% of the median for this time of year. This above-average snowpack has made for some surprisingly enjoyable skiing and riding, primarily in the snow-favored mountains to the west and northwest of Crested Butte. In those snow-favored areas, snow depths average 40cm to 60cm, or ~1.5 to 3 feet above 11,000ft. The downside of the current snow coverage is the widespread weak layers as we look ahead to multiple storms and an atmospheric river event next week. Forecasters are out documenting those weak layers in anticipation of the upcoming avalanche cycle (1 & 2). This is a good time to take note of any slopes that currently have bare ground and little to no snow coverage, as those may be your go to slopes come Thanksgiving.

The first pulse of snowfall is forecasted to arrive late on Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, with strong westerly to southwesterly winds. The avalanche danger will begin to climb towards MODERATE after the arrival of that snow.  If the atmospheric river event stays lined up for next week, we can expect rapidly rising avalanche danger and a natural avalanche cycle.