Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will increase throughout the day as a strong storm impacts the area. Natural and human triggered avalanches in wind loaded terrain and areas receiving 10" or more of new snow are likely. Larger avalanches 1-2+ feet deep on buried weak layers at upper elevations are possible. We recommend a cautious approach to avalanche terrain and avoiding runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Happy Winter Solstice! Mother Nature is giving a good excuse to stay inside, with rain line expected to be around 2200'. 

    A very strong storm system is expected to bring 1-1.5" of water (12-18" of snow above 3000') to Summit Lake and Seward. Winds are expected to average 50-60 mph at ridgetops with gusts up to 100 mph possible. Summit Lake has not received as much precipitation in the past two days as Turnagian Pass or Girdwood so the avalanche danger will rise more slowly.

    Wind slabs will be the main concern in the early part of the day but, if the weather forecast is correct, the additional snowfall today will make natural and human triggered avalanches in the new snow likely later today. We recommend a cautious approach to avalanche terrain today and being mindful of the runout zones of overhead avalanche paths because of the potential for natural avalanches. Stay on the lookout for red flags and remember you can always stick to low angle terrain to reduce your risk. 

    Below are our best estimates for the amount of rain/snow that has already fallen from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning with estimated snowfall amounts above 2500':

    • Girdwood: 0.7" water (6-10" snow)
    • Portage: 2.2" water (24-30" snow)
    • Turnagain Pass: 0.5" water (4-6" snow)
    • Summit Lake: 0.2" water (1-3" snow)
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 0.0" water

    NWS precipitation forecast showing the expected water totals across the regions. For reference, 1" of water is roughly 1' of new snow.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Above 2000' there are several weak layers buried in the snowpack that could cause larger avalanches. High elevation start zones that are being actively loaded by wind transported snow are the most likely location for these avalanches to release naturally or be triggered by a person. Larger avalanches releasing at upper elevations could runout to valley bottoms. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The wet weather today will start to melt the frozen snowpack at lower elevations and make wet avalanches very likely on steep terrain. Wet loose avalanches start on the surface and can entrain a lot of snow as they run downslope. These are particularly dangerous near terrain traps like gullies and cliffs. 

    Wet slabs are also possible as the rain penetrates deeper into the snowpack and saturates existing weak layers in the snowpack. 

Regions covered