Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and rain will create tricky, variable avalanche conditions. Natural and human triggered wet avalanches are possible. In windy upper elevation terrain, there's an outside chance you could trigger avalanches involving dry snow. Although large avalanches are unlikely on most slopes, warm temps and the threat of thunderstorms will drive unpredictable conditions in the mountains.   

Rain and continued warm temperatures will cause the danger to increase tonight. If it's raining hard while you're out in the mountains today, the safe play is to stay off of and out from beneath large, steep, snow-covered slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches could release on their own (natural avalanches), and triggering them is possible. Wider, wet slab avalanches are less likely but not out of the question. Both flavors of wet avalanches could  involve recent snowfall and drifted snow (in the western part of this zone) or fail on layers deeper in the snowpack throughout this zone.

    The chance of triggering avalanches can change dramatically as you change aspects or elevation and as you move to areas with different snowpack depths. Over short distances, soft, supportable surface conditions can morph to a gloppy mess or a frozen popsicle. 

    This morning, wet loose avalanches are most likely in very steep, rocky terrain on the southern half of the compass where the snowpack is relatively thin. Last night's warm temperatures prevented a hard freeze, so avalanches are possible from the get go. This afternoon's expected drizzle and warm temperatures could cause wet loose issues to spread to very steep, shady terrain on the northern half of the compass. 

    Watch for rollerballs and snails rolling downhill on steep slopes, signs that wet loose slides are possible. Stability can change rapidly - think minutes rather than hours. Avoid avalanche terrain where you're sinking deep into a wet, sloppy snowpack. 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION - CORNICES: We've observed many cornice failures during the recent warm weather spell. With today's warm temperatures and the lack of a hard, overnight freeze, cornices are suspect today. Large cornices are dangerous on their own, and smaller cornices can trigger wet avalanches when they fall onto steep slopes. 

    (3/30/2024) Wet loose slides from the previous days warm sun

Avalanche Discussion

Rain and heat: 

  • Triggering avalanches is unlikley where corn snow conditions exist: a solid, supportable snowpack with a little soft, moist or wet snow on the surface. 
  • Dry snow on slopes on the northern half of the compass will "misbehave" if/when significant rain falls. If rain falls as more than drizzle while you're out today, stability could quickly go downhill. If thunderstorms produce moderate to heavy rainfall, the safe move is to stay out of avalanche terrain, especially on the northern half of the compass where dry surface snow exists.
  • Today's warm temperatures and cloud cover could make it feel like a sauna and cause wet snow avalanche problems on some shady slopes. Be prepared to see some interesting, dynamic conditions. 

Dry slab avalanches:

  • Observers reported small, human triggered and natural wind slab avalanches in alpine terrain in the Boulder Mtns on Monday,  one of which caught, carried, and partially buried a snowboarder. Although similar slides are less likely in this zone, we can't rule out wind slab avalanches, especially in the Soldier Mtns. You are most likely to run into this problem near ridgelines, in couloirs, in mid-slope features like gullies and cliffbands, and on the aprons of large alpine bowls. 
  • Triggering a large avalanche on deeper persistent weak layers would take some bad luck, but it is not impossible. Triggering one of these is most likely in very steep, rocky, windy alpine terrain where variable snowpack depths exist.

Regions covered