Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Wet avalanches are the main concern today below 3,000' where rain is falling on dry snow. Rollerballs are a sign that this type of problem could occur. At the highest elevations strong winds and snowfall are building drifts of dense snow that could be 2' deep or more. It will be likely for a human to trigger a wind slab where these drifts are forming. Watch for and avoid areas with blowing snow.

Glide cracks are still a concern and could release into large and dangerous avalanches. They are more difficult to see in these cloudy conditions, but look for that "brown frown" or wrinkly snow and avoid traveling underneath if possible.

Portage/Placer: This area received over 4" of water (rain) in the last 24 hours. Above rainline this is 4+ feet of new snow. Avalanche conditions are especially dangerous where this amount of precipitation has fallen.

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    A glide avalanche is the most dangerous of today's smorgasbord of problems. Sometimes rain and warm temperatures can increase glide avalanche activity, but sometimes nothing happens. That is one of the interesting and scary things about glides, they are completely unpredictable. The good thing is they are avoidable if we can see them, which may be difficult today. We know they are everywhere in Turnagain so the safest plan is to avoid terrain where we know they exist especially if visibility is limited due to clouds.

     

    (12/3/2024)

    Glide avalanche release through the clouds that is likely from an older avalanche. 

    Photo: John Sykes

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Natural wet loose avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely today. Numerous natural wet loose avalanches were observed in Girdwood yesterday. We expect similar conditions in Turnagain Pass where over 1" of rain fell below 3,000' on a relatively dry snowpack. Luckily, this problem is one of the easier ones to manage, but wet snow can be difficult to escape if too much of it builds up. Roller balls are a good sign that we could trigger a wet loose slide.

    Storm slab and Wind slab: In the upper most elevations above 3,000' where snow was falling there could be up to 12" of new snow that was blown into drifts up to 2' thick or more. Both storm slab and wind slab natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avlanches are likely above 3,000'. These avalanches could be large enough to bury a person and could be large enough to bury a house closer to Portage where several feet of new snow has fallen. Watch for blowing snow and avoid places where it is depositing into "pillows" of dense snow which is typically found below ridgelines and in cross loaded gullies. 

     

Regions covered