Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A skier or rider could trigger a small isolated wind slab avalanche today as winds increase in front of a storm system approaching the region.  This hazard will increase with incoming snow.  Avoid wind drifts, pillows, and newly formed cornices primarily located in steep gullies, on the leeward side of ridgelines, and in cross-loaded terrain.    

It's not too late to enter the  Arizona Snowbowl Season Pass Raffle!  Come support KPAC this Saturday (4/6/2024) on the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser. All proceeds benefit our scholarship fund.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    High winds out of the south and southwest are forecast for the region today.  These winds, which could gust between 50-70 mph, along with the incoming snow, will cause the avalanche danger to increase.    These high winds typically result in wind slabs being present only in isolated locations, but any backcountry recreationist entering the near and above treeline terrain today should be on the watch for accumulating snow in drifts, mounds, and on the leeward side of terrain features.  Minimal snow is currently available for transport, so until new snow falls, these wind slabs will likely be small with potential crown heights from 3" to 8".  While parts of the mountain may be stripped of snow, skiers and riders should still beware of potential wind slab accumulation on all slopes and aspects, as some protected areas, such as behind ridges and rock outcrops, may recirculate winds in multiple directions, and become locations for snow deposition. 

    Complicating the wind situation is that the current wind and sun affected snow may become an ideal bed surface for new snow and wind slab release.  Poor bonding between the old and new snow surfaces may make these wind slabs more sensitive than in typical conditions. 

    Look for signs of instability, such as cracking and shearing, especially when traveling on upslope terrain.  It's better to heed these early warning signs and choose below treeline slopes than continue higher into more committing areas.  Hollow sounding mounds of snow are a sign of wind slab formation, and such slopes may be unstable.  Test small inconsequential rollovers by jumping on the tops of these features and looking for cracking or sliding.  New snow accumulation is not expected to start until late afternoon, but as this snow arrives, watch for increased wind slab development.

Avalanche Discussion

Our late winter season continues as another storm system approaches Northern Arizona.  This storm is expected to deliver plenty of wind and then 3-7" of snow and may reshape the current coverage on the mountain.  Winds are forecast to be severe enough today that most of the snow will be sublimated into the atmosphere, but in some isolated terrain areas, especially in the Inner Basin, snow could accumulate in pillows and wind drifts that might release with the weight of a skier or rider.   Small avalanches are possible in isolated terrain features, such as in starting zones, on the leeward side of ridges, and in cross loaded gullies.

High winds will likely deter most travelers from accessing above treeline terrain.  These south and southwest winds are expected to decrease slightly in the afternoon as a quick moving storm starts to pass over the region.  Winds may decrease as the new snow starts to fall.  This new snow, in combination with decreased wind speeds, could create ideal conditions for snow transport and wind slab avalanches.  Currently, the timing of this process is difficult to determine, but if the snow comes in heavy and the wind speeds move to moderate,  there could be ideal conditions for a wind + new snow = wind slab situation.  This scenario will most likely be the case for tomorrow as the new snow is not expected to fall until 5:00 pm.

As mentioned previously, the existing bed surface may be a factor in the sensitivity of these newly formed wind slabs.  Currently, much of the near treeline and above treeline terrain is either a hardened melt-freeze crust or wind board of 4 Finger to 1 Finger hardness.  This new snow may not bond well with the current surface.  If you're sliding out of your skin track and having trouble gaining traction, this is a sign that wind slabs may be more sensitive and likely to slide on the old snow surface.

Currently, the SNOTEL site in Snowslide Canyon is nearly 150% of the median snow water equivalent for this time of year. Snow depths in the inner basin near treeline are averaging around 200 cm.  This year, spring powder keeps the snowpack deep at higher elevations, and with this bonus comes increased avalanche danger. Keep a watchful eye, and don't let the last couple of days of spring-like weather lull you into a false sense of security.  

Recent snowpits can be found at https://snowpilot.org/snowpits/query?field_loaction_tid=4. 

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Many thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season, and a big thank you to all our participants! KPAC is especially grateful to our generous community. Your support makes avalanche forecasting and education possible in Northern Arizona. 100% of KPAC's funding comes from fundraisers, donations, and grants - your contribution matters!

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