Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You're most likely to trigger a slab avalanche in areas where recent wind and snow have formed drifts and slabs at upper elevations. While less likely, you may be able to trigger a larger avalanche on shadier slopes that face away from the afternoon sun. Loose snow avalanches could occur this afternoon on steep, wind-sheltered slopes that face the sun.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The combination of recent snow and wind built slabs and drifts at upper elevations. These slabs remain possible to trigger.

    Where is it? Wind Slabs typically form near and below exposed ridgelines, and along cross-loaded mid-slope gullies. This problem will be most common at upper elevations, but be on the lookout for Wind Slabs in exposed middle elevations too.  In the craggy Sawtooth Mtns, slabs commonly form in cirques below large cliff faces and on the aprons of large chutes and couloirs.

    • Look for shooting cracks, smooth dunes, textured snow surfaces, or cornices. 
    • Feel for changing surface conditions while entering more exposed terrain. Wind slabs will feel firmer than snow surfaces in sheltered locations. 

    If you encounter these signs, reduce your odds of triggering a Wind Slab by moving to lower-angle terrain and/or terrain sheltered from the wind.

    Wind Slabs could be great triggers for the larger Persistent Slab avalanche as described below.

     

    (3/7/2026) Remnants of an old slab avalanche out 4th of July Creek that's been mostly refilled due to recent wind loading.

    Photo: Tyler, Jorgenson

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Although unlikely, you could trigger a 2-3 ft thick persistent slab avalanche on buried weak layers (sugary facets, surface hoar, and crust + facet combinations). This problem is worst on middle and upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-NE-E that also received significant wind loading over the last few days. 

    While the odds are low, the consequences of triggering one of these dense, thick slabs are severe. Don't expect obvious signs of instability. In low probability/high consequence situations like this, there's a good chance the first sign of instability you'll see is the avalanche you trigger.

    Persistent slabs can fail unpredictably and break wider and higher on slopes than you might expect. Avoiding avalanche terrain is the only surefire way to manage this problem. Short of that, you can reduce your risk by avoiding large, obviously wind-loaded, avalanche paths and those with ugly consequences if you are caught in a slide.

Avalanche Discussion

The places where triggering a large Persistent Slab avalanche is most likely are where recent wind loading coincides with buried weak layers 2–3 feet deep. Newly formed slabs from recent snowfall and wind may have added enough weight to increase the likelihood of triggering a deeper, larger persistent slab avalanche. This setup is most common on NW–N–NE–E aspects at mid and upper elevations.

Additionally, small Wet Loose avalanches may develop this afternoon on steep, sun-exposed slopes that are sheltered from the wind. Watch for pinwheels, roller balls, or moist, gloppy snow surfaces– these are signs that wet loose avalanches are becoming more likely. To reduce your risk, move to shadier terrain where the surface snow remains dry and powdery.

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