Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions will develop as a potent storm starts overloading the snowpack. Wind-loaded terrain will be most dangerous, but any steep open slopes should be considered suspect as the storm gets going. Start the day with a simple plan and consider avoiding all avalanche terrain as the storm intensifies. 

We may reach HIGH danger by the late afternoon/evening hours as snow levels creep higher and precipitation rates increase. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall, increasing winds, and warming will set the stage for easy-to-trigger storm and wind slabs. Expect these slabs to be larger and more destructive in wind loaded terrain. Slab depths will increase in size as the storm intensifies through the day. We suspect most avalanches to fail within the new snow or just above the stout 3/8 crust on recent low-density snow that fell in past days.

     By later day, natural avalanches may start shedding, even in more wind sheltered terrain. It won’t be the day to test your luck in or around avalanche terrain, just consider avoiding it as the storm gets going. 

    (3/14/2025)

    Drifts and blowing snow can help you identify slopes of concern. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

As of Tuesday evening, you’ll likely find somewhere between 7-10 inches of low-density snow over a boot/ski supportable crust in the western reaches of the zone. Look for a big change in the weather as a storm comes crashing into the southern Washington Cascades. Heavy loading will stress the snowpack as the day progresses and may even overload it to the point where we may start seeing natural avalanches occurring by the afternoon hours. While the start of the day may not feel that dangerous, expect a sharp rise in the avalanche danger as precipitation rates increase.

We are gaining confidence that the older, persistent weak layers are healing. We've been tracking the 2/13 buried surface hoar and facets around the 2/7 crust. An NWAC forecaster traveled to the Pinegrass Ridge area last week and identified these layers about 2 feet below the surface. On west aspects, they produced propagating test results, while on southerly aspects, the layers were gaining strength. The last (and only) known persistent slab avalanches that failed in the East South occurred on February 28th around Darland Mountain. In the nearby East Central zone, snow professionals have reported no notable snowpack test results associated with these layers for the last 3 days. 

NWAC Forecasters produce more accurate avalanche forecasts when the community chips in. Please let us know what you're seeing out there.

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