Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on W-N-E-SE aspects near and above treeline, where slabs of drifted snow rest atop a buried persistent weak layer. The instability is most pronounced on steep northerly slopes near treeline, where human-triggered avalanches a foot deep or more remain possible.

There’s a low-probability but high-consequence risk for full-depth avalanches failing on weak facets near the ground in specific areas. To mitigate this, stay clear of thin slope margins, steep convexities, and rocky, extreme terrain on the northerly end of the compass.

Most other terrain has a LOW danger, though small avalanches involving thin slabs of wind-drifted snow may still occur on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    The primary avalanche concern is a weak layer of faceted snow formed during the December dry spell and buried on 12/25. This layer is about a foot below the surface on slopes facing W-N-E-SE. While the weak layer is widespread, the overlying slab is not—and both are needed to create an avalanche.

    The most suspect terrain is northerly aspects near treeline. Above treeline, strong northerly winds have created an erratic pattern of slab distribution, stripping snow from many north and east aspects typically loaded with it. Cross-loading remains a factor, meaning you could move from scoured, benign-looking terrain to standing atop a hard slabs resting on weak facets.

    Watch for changes in surface texture, such as rough and thin transitioning to smooth, hard, and thick. Pay close attention to gullies, depressions, and leeward sides of terrain features, as these are common deposition zones.

    In these same areas, there is a lingering chance for avalanches to fail on weak facets near the ground. To mitigate this risk, avoid extreme, rocky slopes with a thin snowpack.

Special Announcement

Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy. AWD with good tires required.

Grooming Conditions: Grooming is scheduled for the weekend.

The beacon park is up and running. High pressure is a great time to work on your beacon skills.

Recent Activity

Dave and I observed multiple natural shallow slabs of wind-drifted snow in the Talking Mountain Cirque. These were primarily on northeast-facing aspects near 11,000’ and true north-facing aspects around 10,800’. They likely formed during the 1/15 wind event, in a similar location to the avalanche cycle from 12/27. See photo below.

See the avalanche database here.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 60" Depth at Gold Basin: 28"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 15-25 Temp: 5° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 90%

Weather

This morning, skies are broken, and temperatures have dropped significantly, hovering in the single digits at trailheads and well below zero along ridgelines. Winds shifted to northwesterly around 6 a.m., increasing to average speeds of 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Today, temperatures will remain cold, with highs staying below 10°F. Northwesterly winds will stay elevated, averaging 20 mph and gusting up to 30 mph. There is a slight chance of snow throughout the day, with the highest likelihood before 2 p.m. No measurable precipitation is expected.

Tonight, temperatures will drop even further, plunging well below zero. On Sunday, highs will barely climb out of the single digits, and the cold air will persist into early next week.

General Conditions

Soft snow can still be found, but it’s hit or miss. Your best chances are on sheltered, northerly aspects below treeline. While the avalanche risk is decreasing, a weak, faceted layer about a foot below the surface remains a concern. You can easily identify it with a shovel, and if you find a slab above this layer, it’s best to avoid steep slopes. More on that below.

Along ridgelines, the elevated winds from the 15th have stripped and scoured the surface, making travel a bit more complex than it was a few days ago.

Additionally, many slopes have thin snow cover, with rocks, stumps, and logs just beneath the surface. Don't end your season before it even begins.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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