Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will continue to rise overnight and on Monday as new snow piles up.  Avalanches large enough to bury or injure a rider are possible throughout all elevations, and likely wherever the wind has blown in deeper deposits of snow.  Monday will be a good day to start with conservative terrain choices, and only move to bigger or steeper slopes when/if you feel confident that it is safe to do so.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Even Light winds can move snow onto leeward slopes.  Older Wind Slabs may remain reactive due to the weak nature of last week's surface snow.  On Monday Wind Slabs will grow with the heavy snowfall and Light winds from the West.  While most of us have no desire to ride up high where the visibility is poor, Wind Slabs can occur near treeline and even below treeline where the wind has open space to blow (passes, burns, and wrapping around our cones and buttes).

    Watch for variable deposition of the new storm snow, as well as stiffer snow or cracking that can indicate wind deposited and packed snow.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Forecasts are calling for over a foot of new snow in the next 24 hours.  Often when is snows at heavy rates, the landscape and older snowpack need time to "come to terms" with this added load.  On Monday, I'll be looking primarily for cohesion in the new snow (can it form a slab).  If it seems cohesive, I'll be avoiding the steepest and most convex slopes.  Hand shears, and shovel tilt tests are great ways to look further into the problem and see if there is a weak layer.

    On Sunday I didn't observe any collapses, cracking, or avalanches, but there was obvious hard over weak layering even in the older snow that was on the ground.  New snow will continue to increase the load over the cold, weak snow from last week (down just under a foot on Sunday).

    Lastly, remember that even relatively small Storm Slab avalanches can have worse consequences when terrain traps like trees, cliffs, and gullies are present; as they often are below treeline.

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