Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

On Saturday, avalanches will be unlikely until it starts to rain.  Although avalanches are unlikely, it is still prudent to use safe travel techniques like riding slopes one at a time, and conducting some snowpack analysis before riding on very steep or large slopes.  Once it starts raining, Wet avalanches will become possible and eventually likely.  The Moderate Hazard level represents the danger towards the end of the day once it has started raining.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Rain on our previously dry snow will cause an increase in the avalanche danger, as free water melts the snow surface and causes it to lose cohesion.  I expect to see primarily Wet Loose avalanches, but larger Wet Slab avalanches are also possible as the rain continues.  The good news is that rain is forecast to begin around 4 pm, so the most dangerous time will likely be after folks have gone home for the day.  Once it starts raining, avoid being on or beneath steep slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

It's been tricky choosing terrain out at Newberry.  Last weekend, a large Wind Slab avalanche was observed above the "Hell Hole", and of course the recent fatalities are still fresh in our minds.  Newberry Crater saw less storm snow than the Cascades early this week, and in general things were feeling more settled there to me.  Nonetheless, I've seen evidence of wind blown snow in all directions, and once in a while I can find some faceted grains down 40 cm. (although the layer doesn't seem well-developed enough to lead to avalanches).  I didn't observe any avalanche problems during my tour today, but I've still been treading a little more gingerly than I otherwise would.

Sadly, the rain will make things quite a bit more straightforward.  I expect we'll see a fair bit of instability during the rain and it will provide a bit of a reset once things cool off.

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