Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Slopes picking up freshly wind drifted snow are where you could trigger an avalanche on Thursday. You might see natural avalanches in alpine areas that experience stronger winds and more widespread loading. Navigate around steep terrain where blowing and drifting snow are forming fresh slabs.  Pull back from exposed terrain if wind speeds and transport are greater than expected.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    There is plenty of light dry snow lying around on all aspects. It won’t take much wind to drift it onto downwind slopes. Fresh wind slabs could be more reactive and release in unusual ways where they build over surface hoar or weak facets.

    Blowing and drifting snow will show you exactly which slopes are loading up and where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche. Small and shallow slabs could grow larger and more dangerous throughout the day. 

    Other than small loose snow avalanches, expect minimal avalanche danger in wind sheltered terrain.

    (1/4/2023)

    Snow drifting onto leeward slopes is the observation that should definitely make you say, "This is the place  . . . where there could be a fresh wind slab."

Avalanche Discussion

Thursday could go two ways. One version would be where backcountry travelers see a bit of wind drifting and small pockets of wind slab, but can navigate all sorts of avalanche terrain with minimal risk. The other would be the kind of day where conditions quickly shift from mellow wind drifting to very reactive and spicy.  Pay attention to changing conditions and be ready to shift gears if/when the time comes.

Observers reported generally low avalanche danger on New Year’s Day. An NWAC Forecaster in Canyon Creek reported light, soft snow on all aspects. Snowpack testing at the 12/27 interface down 1 to 1.5 feet didn’t produce propagation. No new wind slab avalanches were reported compared to the day prior when backcountry travelers triggered small wind slabs in the Baker Backcountry and also in Canyon Creek.

Surface hoar is widespread and growing large in Canyon Creek. Weak snow surfaces of facets, surface hoar, or just soft, weak new snow have been reported from around the forecast zone. The question will be how much of it survives as a continuous weak layer that can produce avalanches. Increasing winds will provably disperse weak surface snow in exposed terrain. But a bit of snowfall at lower snow levels could cap and preserve it before a warmer and wetter storm a few days out. 

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