Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Moderate to strong westerly winds have continued, with a couple inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. Heightened avalanche conditions continue to exist on wind-loaded terrain. The best skiing and riding will likely be found in wind-sheltered terrain where normal caution is advised. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Sunday and Monday can be characterized by moderate to strong westerly winds with sustained periods of blowing snow. Visibility has been relatively poor, but we have still observed several small natural and skier-triggered wind slabs in wind-loaded terrain. Slabs can be found at all elevations today, but they will be a bit more common the higher you go.    Look for smooth, stiff drifts deposited behind tree fences, ridges, or in cross-loaded gullies to identify the problem.  A small wind slab can get you in trouble if it drags you into rocks or trees, into a gulley, or other terrain traps.  The safest riding is where the snow is stripped or protected from the wind.  

    Blowing snow and a fresh wind slab below a leeward ridge on Mt. Baldy (2/19).  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Over the past 2 weeks, several large avalanches have failed on faceted weak layers deeper in the snowpack.  These include a natural avalanche on Carbonate Hil on Thursday, a remotely triggered avalanche on Mt. Emmons on Sunday, and several human-triggered slides the previous week (Hunter Hill, Snowmass). Persistent slab activity has been infrequent this month and most problematic on wind-loaded terrain.  Be cautious of similar-looking terrain where wind drifting has stressed buried weak layers and formed stiff slabs of varying thicknesses. 

    This large persistent slab failed up to 5 feet thick on weak snow deep in the snowpack.  The avalanche ran naturally on 2/16 on Carbonate Hill.

Avalanche Discussion

Snow available for transport was expected to dry out over the last 24 hours. However, mother nature provided us with more accumulating snow than was forecast during that time. This makes it an easy call to hold heightened avalanche conditions for a wind slab avalanche problem. Scarps Ridge weather station at 12,000ft has continued to record wind speeds in the 20 to 30mph range from the west and southwest. The 11,000ft wind station at CBMR recorded elevated winds during the AM hours Monday with gusts around 30mph and average wind speeds nearing 20mph. A couple of inches of snow accumulated across the forecast area on Monday during the AM hours. Schofield Pass has continued to record additional accumulating SWE on Monday night with 24-hour totals in the .4 to .5 range. Some ground truthing would be nice as those numbers are much higher than expected, but 24-hour snow totals in the NW Mountains of 2 to 5" seems like a fair estimate. 

Persistent weak layers that were buried earlier in February are just starting to become more notable as they are finally just starting to get buried by enough snow. On Sunday, a group of skiers remotely triggered a large persistent slab near Red Lady Glades on Mount Emmons. This avalanche failed on a SE aspect in a stack of thin crusts that formed earlier this month. Persistent slab avalanche concerns have remained in the SE Mountain Forecast for some time. While persistent slab avalanche concerns are now coming onto the radar for the NW Mountains. In the NW Mountains, this avalanche problem is currently expected to be isolated at the moment, before becoming more notable as we head into the next winter storm. 

A strong winter storm will begin impacting the area tonight and develop dangerous avalanche conditions on Wednesday. 

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