Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Triggering a wind slab avalanche will be probable on loaded leeward slopes and terrain features near and above treeline. Northerly and northeasterly slopes near and above treeline may have conditions ripe for large to very large avalanches. Careful snowpack evaluation and cautious routes will be essential for anyone venturing onto and below slopes greater than 30° steep. Anticipate that the avalanche danger may remain elevated the next few days. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and wind slabs may not bond well to slick and glazed snow surfaces observed this past weekend. New slabs may also have formed over near surface facets. Various forms of near surface faceting were observed on all aspects last weekend. 

    New wind slabs may be large enough to re-energize the dormant persistent weak layer of basal facets. Human-triggered wind slab avalanches may have enough force to step down, creating propagating failures in the weak layer of basal facets. If so, the avalanches may become very large. The basal facets and depth hoar have been documented on northerly and northeasterly slopes between 11,000' and 11,800'. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Some slabs that overlay the depth hoar/basal facets have gained significant strength and are pencil+ hard. It will be difficult to deform those slabs and collapse the faceted layers (creating an avalanche). Also, these faceted layers near the ground have strengthened over the last few weeks. Given these developments, it is unlikely that a person will directly trigger a persistent slab avalanche. However, human-triggered wind slab avalanches may have enough force to step down, creating propagating failures in the weak layer of basal facets, resulting in large to very large avalanches. 

Avalanche Discussion

Cold temperatures will likely delay the bonding of new snow and wind slabs to the old snow surface. Pay close attention to the new/old snow interface for the next several days. 

Before the St. Valentine's Day Storm, some southerly slopes below 9500' were bare ground due to wind and melting. Previous winds had stripped some above treeline slopes down to rocks and cinders. 

The last known large avalanches occurred in mid-January during the MLK Storm Cycle. These large natural avalanches resulted from failures in the basal facets/depth hoar mentioned above. The last known avalanche occurred between January 23-27 and was a relatively small wind slab. 

Regions covered