Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  You are likely to trigger an avalanche in steep wind loaded terrain. Avalanches can be triggered from above, below or at your same elevation. Use conservative decision making as avalanches will be large enough to injure or bury you.

A winter storm warning is in effect until 5pm tomorrow. Avalanche danger will increase significantly as heavy snow and wind arrive this afternoon.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    You are most likely to trigger an avalanche in areas of wind loaded snow. Recent winds have redistributed last week’s snow to lee aspects further stressing the weak layers buried on January 4. These touchy wind slabs will continue to grow with the incoming storm and be specific to ridgelines, crossloaded gullies and any lee zones of exposed terrain with new snow that can be fetched by the wind.Weak snow formed during the month-long dry spell in December is sitting 1-3 feet below a slab accumulated in the last week and a half. You will find this problem in most places at upper elevations as well as west through north through east aspects at mid-elevations, where old, weak snow lingers at the base of the snowpack. This observation from yesterday shows recent avalanches with start zones in heavily wind loaded areas.  During my tour yesterday I experinced widespread collapsing and shooting cracks up to 10 feet at a time.

    As you travel today, watch for red flags including recent avalanches and heavy snowfall with high wind. Look for visual clues like pillows and deeper drifts built by the wind. Shooting cracks from your skies or sled and audible collapses are evidence of weak snow below the surface. Give yourself an extra margin for error and steer clear of steep slopes. Be mindful of traveling under steep terrain and only expose one person at a time. It’s a great day for riding low angle powder fields.

    Natural D2.5 at 10,100 feet on SE aspect that likely failed on 1/14 or 1/15 from recent wind overloading the December drought layer.

    Recent Observation

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack remains reactive and more snow is on the way. The December drought left widespread weak facets, buried surface hoar and crusts. These weak layers can fail easily right now and cracks can propagate long distances. This particular snowpack is ripe for long distance remote triggers and long running avalanches. Keep your head on a swivel as you ride and if you travel onto a slope, make sure it isn't connected to steep terrain above or below you. Pay particular attention to terrain traps such as steep creek beds where even small slopes above could bury you. 

The Tetons are at the tail end of possibly a historic avalanche cycle. While there is less snow on Togwotee, similarities exist in the snowpack and the current lack of stability. With more snow coming in the next 36 hours, there was little time for the snowpack to adjust to the current load. Use cautious route-finding, or better yet, practice your low angle side-hilling technique in sheltered areas.

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