Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain dangerous and difficult to predict. Hard slab avalanches can be triggered in steep terrain. These slabs could be triggered on a variety of aspects and are most sensitive in the middle elevations. Conservative terrain choices are recommended to avoid being caught in a large avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    It is possible for skiers and riders to trigger large hard slab avalanches failing on weak snow that formed during December. These slabs are 2-4 feet deep above 7,500’ and 1-2 feet deep below that. Most aspects remain suspect because of the widespread nature of the January 4th persistent weak layer. Triggering an avalanche is most likely between 7,500’ and 9,000’ due to a thinner slab and well preserved weak layer, but should not be ruled out on steep slopes at the higher elevations. Collapses continue to be reported in the mid elevations. Remote triggering is still possible in this elevation band and is evident by this avalanche that was triggered from a distance yesterday outside the JHMR boundary. Steep, rocky, and unsupported terrain features are most likely to produce an avalanche at the moment. However, given the well connected nature of the weak layer, it is possible for avalanches to propagate long distances across or up slopes. Because of this, careful evaluation of the terrain that you plan to ride, as well as the surrounding slopes is important. Avoid crossing underneath steep slopes and give convex “roll overs” a wide margin.

    Although unlikely, there is a chance that an avalanche failing on the January 4th interface could step down to weak snow at the base of the snowpack. Any avalanche involving the entire snowpack will be destructive and likely unsurvivable.

    A remotely triggered avalanche that occurred yesterday (1/27) outside the JHMR boundary. Note the convex, rocky, and wind affected nature of the terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

Slab depths from the January storms vary across the Tetons. In the upper elevations of the central Tetons, the January 4th weak layer is likely buried by 3+ feet of hard, consolidated snow making it difficult, but not impossible for humans to impact said layer. This is not the case in other parts of the range. For example, the western slope of the Tetons and areas near Teton Pass have a thinner overlaying slab making human triggered avalanches more likely in steep terrain. While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche varies by location and elevation, the consequences of being caught in a large hard slab avalanche do not. Digging and probing for depths to the January 4th interface can provide useful information about the snowpack in terrain you wish to ride. However, it is safe to assume that poor structure exists across the zone and knowing exactly where a trigger point exists is very difficult. If you are uncertain about the likelihood of triggering an avalanche where you are riding, then defaulting to lower angle terrain that is not connected to overhead hazard remains the best option.

Regions covered