Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heightened avalanche danger continues today as near-record high temperatures destabilize the snowpack. Three days of well-above freezing temperatures, no overnight refreeze, and a wet snowpack, will make wet slab and wet loose avalanches possible on all aspects up to 10,000 feet. Evaluate the snowpack carefully, looking for signs of instability before committing to avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It has been three days of unseasonably warm temperatures, with no freeze overnight, and recent rain-on-snow. Water has collected on a series of interfaces and crusts within the snowpack, extending 25 inches below the surface. At the moment, there have not been signs of wet slab activity. But that's the tricky part, wet slabs can be elusive to detect until failure. If triggered, however, these slabs could break up to two feet deep and be big enough to bury. With the continued warm conditions, the risk only increases. Stay vigilant out there, look for signs of rising instability such as pinwheels and roller balls, previous wet loose avalanches, and deeper than usual boot penetration. Assess avalanche terrain carefully, performing ski cuts on test slopes before committing to avalanche terrain.

    Wet loose avalanches will also be possible in the same elevations and aspects, running far and entraining 8–10 inches of snow.

    (1/28/2024)

    Gray Butte

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

Avalanche Discussion

As of 5am, Gray Butte (8,000 feet) is recording a temperature of 45 degrees F. Freezing levels are expected to reach above 11,000 feet today, and hold near 10,000 feet through the night. The danger of wet avalanches will remain the same today due to these continued warm conditions. Approach avalanche terrain with caution, keeping a sharp eye for rising instability such as growing roller balls, previous wet avalanches, and general loss-of-supportability like severe boot penetration and punching deep on skin tracks. Weather begins to change tomorrow, as the large offshore trough begins to move onshore.

Regions covered