Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow will greatly stress faceted weak layers near the ground creating dangerous avalanche conditions near and above treeline.  You could trigger an avalanche in the storm snow, but the more likely scenario is that it will fail on deeper persistent weak layers near the ground. Avoid being on or connected to terrain over 30 degrees, paying attention to obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks.  Any avalanche triggered could break widely across the slope and terrain features, taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and an inch of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) will stress an overall weak (faceted) and shallow snowpack that existed before this latest round of snow. These weak layers will be easy for a rider to impact and collapse to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.  Warning signs like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks are indications that you've found unstable snow.  These types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering an avalanche from the flats or a distance away.  Avoid being on or connected to steep slopes above you. Any avalanche triggered could be large enough to injure or bury you, and most likely will take with it most of the season's snowpack. 

    An example of a shooting crack, this is an indication you've found a poor snowpack structure of strong cohesive snow over weak faceted snow.  

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Close to a foot of snow has fallen over the last 2 days. This has been a right-side-up storm with it coming in warm, wet, and windy and leaving cold with low-density snow and light winds.  Winds are expected to remain light today out of the NW but it won't take much if the winds do pick up to transport snow.  Because of this right-side-up setup, storm slab avalanches most likely will fail at the old snow interface which consisted of near-surface facets and surface hoar before this storm.  Although you may be able to trigger a storm slab avalanche there's a good chance it will step down into deeper older weak layers near the ground creating a larger and more dangerous avalanche. 

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals over the last two days are  8 - 10 inches with about 1" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).   The first part of the storm came in warm and wet with west winds in the 20 to 30 mph range gusting in the 60's. The second part of the storm that pushed through last night came in much colder with lower-density snow and winds in the single digits. Light flurries with no measurable accumulation and light winds are expected throughout the day today. The right-side-up nature of this storm and light winds will most likely help keep a more widespread natural avalanche cycle at bay.  

Yesterday afternoon in travels, slabs were becoming more reactive with signs of shooting cracks and collapses becoming more present in travels near and above treeline. Below treeline, the impacts of the wind were less noticeable and we still lacked the presence of a reactive slab. With more snow overnight we may see slabs form at this elevation band.  Travel has become much easier but ground hazards continue to exist.  

Before this storm, we've had a week of high pressure that has felt spring-like with warm sunny days and colder clear nights.  The shallow snowpack  (30 - 75 cm before the storm)  continued to facet and on most slopes consisted of facets from top to bottom. Solar aspects had formed crusts on the surface with weak snow underneath. South aspects had mainly melted back to bare ground. At upper elevations on northerly and east aspects. previous storms and wind events have created a slab/weak layer combination that has only produced small avalanches from explosive control work just after the storm from 12/15.  Signs of instability like cracking and collapsing quickly diminished as well as avalanche activity. Over the week of high pressure, slabs that formed during this storm have weakened and have been faceting over the last week of high pressure.

The one constant in the snowpack right now is a widespread faceted/depth hoar weak layer near the ground that was reactive during previous loading events in long column tests.  Now that we'll be re-introducing a cohesive slab on many slopes, we'll have all the ingredients needed for a slab avalanche. Over an inch of SWE will stress and test these persistent weak layers that continue to remain weak and well-preserved deeper down in the snowpack. Sticking to lower-angle terrain that is protected from the wind will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

Regions covered