Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Gusty Southwest winds along with a foot or more of new snow have created wind slabs 1-2 feet thick in leeward terrain.

Dry loose avalanches are going to be likely on all slopes steeper than 35 degrees. 

Avoid wind-loaded terrain, especially near ridgelines and cornices.  Use cautious travel protocols like 1 at a time on all slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Over a foot of new snow has come down in the last 24 hours. Some Northern locations have likely received more snow. It is likely today to get the upper 1-2 feet of soft dry snow to move with you in terrain that is steeper than 35 degrees. 

    Use extra caution, and good sluff management in and around large sustained steep slopes or exposed terrain like cliffs, gullies, and other terrain traps where the snow can have its way with you and drag you where you are trying to avoid.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds were moving trees on Wednesday afternoon as well as snow that was visibly flying off of the peaks in plumes from as far as 3 miles or more. South-southwest winds reached into the 20s and were showing signs of effect on the surface of the snow. Overnight, more snow came in and wind speeds decreased which may hide previous evidence of loading patterns. 

    Looking for clues as to which direction the wind has loaded a slope may be inaccurate. Be cautious on all upper elevation aspects as local terrain can dictate loading patterns. The majority of slopes that are going to have sensitive slabs are going to be E, NE, N, & NW. Use caution near ridgelines and cornice edges that may be overhanging and sensitive to the weight of a person. Cornices can break fast and farther back than you may think.

    If you are seeing red flags like recent avalanches and or are seeing cracking or feeling hollow or drumlike snow, find another route, lower in slope angle to travel on.

    (3/27/2024) East aspect near Council Mtn: Observed active wind transport and this fresh Small Natural D-1 wind slab that was hard to see just below the cornice. It looked to be 1-2 feet deep and was only 50-75 feet wide

Avalanche Discussion

Our snowpack has gone through a lot of ups and downs over the last 2 weeks with temps climbing and dropping, and solar aspects struggling to get refrozen through some of its first springlike cycles. Our stability tests have shown weak layers of graupel, buried surface hoar, and wet facets beneath crusts in the upper 2-3' of the snowpack. These layers are visible enough to give you a feeling of alarm when you first start excavating a snowpit. The failures on these layers are not propagating in extended column tests which indicate some strength. 

Given the poor to suspect structure of our snowpack, it would be wise to dial back your plans in the mountains a bit more on the conservative side and incorporate some room for error. Easing into terrain, and doing simple things like checking your partners for transceiver function, checking out the snowpack by doing a formal test, or hitting a test slope that does not have consequences is going to give you better chances than letting your guard down and just sending it. Watch your partners from a true safe spot well out of where an avalanche could run while having fun in the mountains.

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