Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  New snow instabilities may exist at mid and upper elevations in specific locations that will make it possible for a person to trigger an avalanche up to 1 foot in depth.  Natural and human triggered wet loose avalanches will be possible at mid and low elevations if the sun comes out this afternoon.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Over the last 5 days, multiple weak storm systems have deposited a few inches at a time to our forecast area, with higher amounts towards the coast.  This new snow is incrementally loading a layer of surface hoar that was first buried on 3/9.  The distribution of this layer is spotty depending upon wind disruption before burial, but seems to be more concentrated on northerly aspects.  Where this layer is present multiple small (D1) skier triggered avalanches with high sensitivity have been reported over the last couple of days.  The depth of storm slabs will vary depending upon proximity to the coast with 8-16 inches in the Maritime zone and less as you move north and east in our forecast zones.

    Assessment of this layer can be tricky as stability will vary depending upon the presence of buried surface hoar.  Where this layer is absent, chances of triggering an avalanche will be much lower as snowfall over the last week has slowly accumulated atop a strong bed surface and there is minimal stress in the upper snowpack.  Areas typically affected by north wind will be unlikely to have the 3/9 BSH layer.

    Use small test slopes that are representative of the steeper terrain you may be planning to travel upon to test the sensitivity of new snow.  Keep in mind the type of avalanche problem you may be dealing with and the mass that it involves.  If traveling in protected north facing terrain avoid exposing yourself to secondary exposure like terrain traps or cliffs where even small avalanches have the potential to have serious consequences.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    North winds kicked up on the Thompson Pass weather station overnight into the 40s.  Wind slabs have been observed in specific terrain over the last few days with low to moderate sensitivity.  Where wind slabs have been found they are generally around 6 inches deep or less and have been found to exist in small pockets.  Last night's increase in wind along with snowfall from the 12th will allow wind slabs to become a bit deeper and grow in size spatially.

    Keep an eye out for how much soft snow is available for transport in the area you choose to travel.  Identify the predominant wind direction and which aspects would be loaded.  Watch for shooting cracks or collapsing on test slopes that would indicate that human triggered wind slabs are possible on specific terrain.  Keep in mind that even shallow avalanches can be dangerous if triggered in extreme terrain or above terrain traps where debris will pile up deeper.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures on almost all weather stations began to rise at midnight last night with sea level temps above freezing as of 6 am.  This increase in temperature will allow for human triggered and natural wet loose activity to occur earlier today than what may be typical.  The extent of this activity will depend on how long the skies stay clear.  Natural wet loose activity was observed yesterday originating from steep rocky solar aspects up to D2 in size.

    Pay attention to not just the terrain you are on but what is above you.  Avoid traveling in steep rocky terrain at low elevations where the surface snow is becoming moist.   Also, avoid travelling below steep rocky faces that are baking in the sun.  The size of potential wet loose slides directly correlates with the vertical relief of a slope and the amount of soft snow that sits on the old late Feb wind board.  It is unlikely at this point for wet loose activity to be able to step down below this old wind damaged snow.

Avalanche Discussion

Incremental small storms have deposited 4-16 inches of new snow over the last 5 days on very hard wind affected surfaces created in February.  These very hard surfaces have gained a lot of strength since they have formed and have essentially capped our mid and lower snowpack making it very unlikely for avalanches to occur beneath this layer.  Before Incremental snowfall began a layer of surface hoar formed on 3/6-7 and became buried on the 9th in some locations.  Distribution of this layer is spotty but is more likely to exist on northerly aspects that are typically protected from north outflow winds.  Stability will vary depending upon the presence of this layer, making snowpack assessment tricky. Human triggered D1 avalanches have been reported as failing on this layer in the last 24 hours.  At this point storm slab mass is low, but this looks like it will change this weekend as a larger storm rolls in that may produce some more meaningful snowfall.  If heavier snowfall does occur expect this avalanche problem to become more sensitive and dangerous as more mass is involved.

Wet loose activity was observed yesterday on low and mid elevation solar aspects.  This activity is expected to continue today depending on cloud cover. It may begin relatively early in the day due to an overnight spike in temperatures observed on almost all of our wx stations.

Glide cracks exist in isolated areas and will be a hazard throughout the season until they fail.  Avoid exposure to glide cracks.

Valdez season snowfall: 256  inches

Valdez March snowfall: 7 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 70 inches

Thompson Pass season snowfall: 596 inches as of 3/1

46 mile height of snowpack: 70 inches

 

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