Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

An extended period of warm and sunny weather will keep wet snow avalanches front and center.  Avoid traveling on or below steep sunny slopes as the day warms.  Be mindful of overhead hazard in areas with large overhanging cornices or when traveling under complex terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As the day warms up, look for the tell-tale signs of increasing wet loose instability like wet surface snow, pinwheels/rollerballs and natural wet loose avalanches.  A poor overnight refreeze followed by warmer temperatures on Friday may break down surface crusts more quickly.   

    Wet loose avalanches can become large at mid and higher elevations where they entrain the recent storm snow, especially in tight features like chutes and gullies.  Move to shadier aspects and lower angle terrain without exposure to overhead hazard like cornices and avoid traveling on or below cliffy slopes in the sun.  Even on shady aspects, make sure you're not connected to more complex terrain that's in the sun. Loose avalanches or cornice fall could rip out a slab avalanche on steep slopes below.  Wet loose avalanches may run further than expected on southerly aspects above a stout crust in the upper foot below the surface. 

    Wet loose avalanches are likely to be smaller at lower elevations, but can still cause trouble near terrain traps. 

    Many rollerballs on an east facing slope.

    Photo: Kaitlin Harrigan

Avalanche Discussion

A storm cycle started on 3/9, dropping almost 3" of water, likely 2-3' of now settled storm snow, in the Hurricane Ridge area and helping the late season snowpack surge.  By Thursday, NPS and NWAC observers found changing conditions under a warm mid-March sun with rollerballs aplenty and small wet loose avalanches set off by tree bombs.   Shady aspects were generally stable and cornices in the Hurricane Ridge were trimmed back and rounded.  A stout crust on southerly aspects about a foot below the surface could provide a good sliding surface to help wet loose avalanches run further than you'd expect.  Planning for overhead hazard will be a key part of safe travel over the next few days as the temperature warms up and snow falls down. 

2023-2024 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December to early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  We will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through the end of April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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