Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

On Tuesday, snow and strong winds will make avalanches likely on steep slopes at upper and middle elevations especially where the wind forms drifts. Watch for wet avalanches at lower elevations and where it could become warm and sticky or slide easily on weak storm interfaces.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Conditions will be more dangerous in the western portion of the zone, near the Cascade crest. strong winds and ongoing snow will make it easy to trigger avalanches. You may even see some occur naturally. Use extra caution on slopes on the northern half of the compass at upper elevations. See more below.

    Wind slabs usually form just below ridgelines and on exposed convexities and gullies, but with such strong wind, look for wind-affected snow lower down on slopes than usual. Visual clues such as cornices, blowing snow, and drifted pillow-like dunes will help you identify where the wind has transported snow. Give cornices a wide berth when standing above and below them. If you see long shooting cracks from your equipment, new slab avalanche activity, or feel collapsing, choose more sheltered and lower-angle terrain.

    (2/21/2025)

    The crown of a small skier triggered slab avalanche on Blewett Pass (02/21).

    Photo: Payton Schiff

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Freezing levels hovered around 6000 ft on Sunday and will start to drop Sunday night. Another small round of snow is forecasted through the end of the day on Monday, accumulating higher totals closer to the Cascade Crest. The snowpack should, by and large, be dry at upper elevations. But whether you make it through all the wet snow lower down to reach dry snow higher up, conditions will not necessarily be safer. This atmospheric event (AR) is testing buried weak layers at all elevations with added weight to the snowpack, and we don't yet know how things have played out. Areas further west in the zone received and continue to expect higher snow totals, making conditions especially precarious in these areas.

    Persistent slabs can break in surprising ways and wider than expected. You will be more likely to trigger a slide in wind-loaded areas, so be on the lookout for signs of wind transport. Clear signs of instability are cracks shooting from your skis or machine, collapsing (whumpfing), and recent natural or triggered slab avalanches. The best way to manage this problem while we wait for the snowpack to adjust to its new load is to avoid avalanche terrain.

    (2/21/2025)

    A small skier triggered slab avalanche made clearly visible the two weak layer interfaces in the snowpack right now.

    Photo: Payton Schiff

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    You may encounter wet avalanches where recent snow gets warm and moist. Older wet snow is less likely to be a problem. In the event that you find areas of wet unsupportive snowpack, move to slopes under 35 degrees.

    (2/24/2025)

    Loose wet avalanche (D1) in Tumwater Canyon

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

We don't have a super clear picture of what has gone down in this zone over the weekend. A widespread small, wet loose avalanche cycle occurred on Blewett Pass, closing the highway for a few hours on Sunday. A similar cycle occured, closing Tumwater Canyon on Monday. On the 23rd, observers from the Holden area reported widespread natural slab and wet loose avalanches. Some were very large and may have run on the January Drought layer. It would be safe to assume that further west in the zone where more precipitation fell, larger avalanches could have released and hit the valley floor. However, we have little other on-the-ground data to go off of. What we do have more certainty about is:

  • there are known weak layers in the snowpack
  • we are still in a very active weather pattern
  • the timing of wet slab avalanches is nearly impossible to predict

So, if you're still reading,  although we are probably past peak instability, it should be clear that we're not out of the weeds yet. Whether wet or dry, small or large, encountering an avalanche of some kind on Monday is likely. Avalanches will be most probable the closer to the Cascade Crest you are. As with any storm cycle, the snowpack needs time to adjust. Approach the backcountry with a healthy dose of skepticism on Monday.

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