Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is low, it’s impossible to say specifically which slopes are dangerous. The only way to fully avoid this problem is by staying off steep open terrain on shady aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Last weekend several persistent slab avalanches were triggered near Hurricane Ridge. While that seems like a long time ago, not much has changed in the snowpack. Sugary weak facets exist at the base of all the fluffy recent storm snow on some slopes.

    At this point in the life of the persistent slab, you probably won’t get any warning signs. Don’t expect shooting cracks or whumpfs to tell you to run and hide. The first clue you get could be the slope releasing around you. Snowpack tests can provide insights into this weak layer, but can not prove a slope “safe.”

    You’re most likely to trigger larger, more complex terrain where convexities and variability in the snowpack could make it easier to trigger. If you choose to play the odds by traveling in steep shaded terrain, consider the consequences of the slope. Trees, rocks, and gullies would make being wrong much worse.

    (2/1/2025)

    Human triggered soft slab avalanche (10" deep) on West facing Avalanche Face adjacent to the Hurricane Ridge Ski Area. 

    Photo: NPS

Avalanche Discussion

This cold and showery pattern brought lots of delightful soft snow to the Olympics. Showers Saturday night could add another inch or so to areas in the eastern and southern portions of the range. By Sunday, most of the precipiation should be wrapped up and the sun starting to pop out. This could cause a few snowballs to shed from rocks and trees and may even trigger small loose avalanches. Fortunately, the cold temperatures should help limit these issues. 

Even if the snow surface is soft and fluffy, the snowpack structure is mean and prickly. Weak sugary facets developed over the long dry period in January (January Drought Layer: JDL). Sometimes these grains have a thin crust just above or beneath them. This is the primary layer we’re worried about. While we know this snowpack structure exists, it is highly variable. We don’t have much new information. 

On more sunny slopes, warm temperatures and sunshine destroyed these weak facets and left a much more robust crust. With light fluffy snow over a stout crust, you could trigger a small dry loose sluff in very steep terrain. 

At lower elevations, the snowpack is much thinner and less developed. This combined with numerous trees and bushes anchoring the snowpack has resulted in lower danger. Instead, be mindful of shallowly buried obstacles and open creeks. 

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