Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Today is not the day to travel on steep slopes. Very large natural avalanches are likely and your odds of triggering an avalanche are even higher. With several feet of new snow, avalanches are possible on all aspects and elevations. Avoid being on, near, or beneath slopes greater than 30°.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The weak faceted snow that formed during January is being overloaded by several days of intense snowfall and rain. This weak layer is most commonly found below and near the treeline on northeast, north, and northwest aspects. It may lie buried several feet deep, especially in wind-loaded areas. Yesterday, it showed its reactivity on the west side of the forecast area with several collapses, massive shooting cracks, and natural avalanche activity. Click here to read the full observation.

    The Old Ski Bowl weather station has picked up 2.5 inches of water (24 inches of snow) over the past three days. By this time tomorrow, we expect an additional two to four inches of water (20-40 inches of snow). This is far too much rapid change for the snowpack to adapt to and, as a result, we expect to see several large avalanches. 

    An avalanche on this layer would be several feet deep and have serious consequences. Stay off of and far away from steep slopes greater than 30°. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–3

    Throughout the duration of the storm, winds have blown from west to southwest at moderate to extreme speeds, depending on elevation. Your odds of finding a wind slab are highest near and above the treeline on NE, N, NW, W, SW, and S aspects. These slabs will be likely to release naturally on their own and almost certainly to slide with the weight of a rider. Common catchment areas for wind-blown snow are near ridgetops, cliff bands, gullies, and on mid-slope convexities. Your safest option is to avoid being on or beneath steep leeward terrain altogether.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent snowfall is setting up into storm slabs on all aspects below and near the treeline. We have observed propagation on weak layers within the several feet of new snow from the past three days and additional loading today will only stress the snowpack more. Folks may be caught off guard by this problem because a storm slab avalanche could occur down in the trees where you might mistakenly let your guard down considering this a "safe area". Stay away from being on or beneath steep slopes. Even a smaller avalanche could bury you in a terrain trap such as a gully or a tree well.

Avalanche Discussion

Today is not the day to thread the needle. With three different avalanche problems, several feet of new snow, wind, rain on snow, and many weak layers in the snowpack, we are facing avalanche conditions you can't outsmart. If you get out in the mountains today, plan your travels to stay far away from any steep slopes. Even if you're in flat to low angle terrain, a very large avalanche from above could still bury you.

Regions covered