Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Weak layers in the snowpack are on the mend but wind slab and wet loose avalanches are still possible. Travel with care in areas with wind-blown snow such as near ridgetops, gullies, and steep knolls. Choosing wind-scoured terrain, slopes under 30°, and avoiding warming snow surfaces are all ways to reduce your chance of triggering a large avalanche today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    Recent public observation submissions confirm the presence of wind slab in both avalanche activity and surface conditions: wind loading on leeward aspects and sastrugi texture on windward aspects. Over the past three days, winds from the SW, W, and NW have averaged 7 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Expect to find wind slabs and fresh cornices on N, NE, E, SE, and S slopes. With the recent change of wind direction from southerly to northerly flow, you may find wind slabs on northwest aspects, too.

    Wind efficiently redistributes snow, forming slabs in leeward areas. Watch for blowing snow and cracking—key signs of instability. To increase your margin of safety, stick to slopes less than 30° and, if you choose steeper terrain, travel on wind-scoured surfaces.

     

    (2/8/2025)

    Shooting cracks on a wind-loaded aspect in Cascade Gulch

    Photo: Erik Short

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Despite sub-freezing temperatures, anytime the sun comes out after fresh snow, this avalanche problem may rear its head. Sun after fresh snow increases instability by creating free water in the snowpack that weakens bonding of the surface snow. Lower-elevation sunlit slopes may see roller balls, pinwheels, and loose sloughs. If you observe the snow surface losing cohesion, choose a shadier aspect or avoid avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

We're stoked to see that folks have been getting out as the blue skies prevail. A plethora of public observations yesterday highlight a widespread natural avalanche cycle that occurred on Thursday and Friday. From Cascade Gulch to Castle Lake and north to Parks Creek Summit, avalanches broke one to two feet deep. Many of which spread wide, connecting large swaths of terrain. Whether or not you see an avalanche, keep those observations coming. Your submissions are a great way of supporting your backcountry community and are an invaluable tool to us as forecasters.

Overall, sunny conditions can both stabilize and destabilize the snowpack depending on the timing, intensity, and prior conditions. Avalanche danger often increases in the afternoon as solar heating peaks. Watch out for falling tree bombs as the sun warms the canopy above. 

Regions covered